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Displacement Fields of Sedimentary Layers Controlled by Fault Parameters: The Discrete Element Method of Controlling Basement Motions by Dislocation Solutions
Shigekazu Kusumoto,
Yasuto Itoh,
Keiji Takemura,
Tomotaka Iwata
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015
Pages:
89-94
Received:
15 April 2015
Accepted:
26 April 2015
Published:
8 May 2015
Abstract: In the two-dimensional discrete element modeling of displacement of sedimentary layers caused by faulting within the basement, we attempted to move a rigid basement as if it were an elastic basement by controlling its motion through application of dislocation solutions. An advantage of our modeling procedure is that we can discuss displacement fields of sedimentary layers in connection with fault parameters. We simulated displacement fields of the sedimentary layers by means of our modeling procedure and found that our simulated fields are different from the fields obtained in rigid basement models and are dependent on the selected fault parameters.
Abstract: In the two-dimensional discrete element modeling of displacement of sedimentary layers caused by faulting within the basement, we attempted to move a rigid basement as if it were an elastic basement by controlling its motion through application of dislocation solutions. An advantage of our modeling procedure is that we can discuss displacement fiel...
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Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation in Damavand Catchment in Iran by Using LARS –WG in Future
Sepideh Karimi,
Saeed Karimi,
Ahmad Reza Yavari,
Mohamad Hosein Niksokhan
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015
Pages:
95-100
Received:
26 April 2015
Accepted:
11 May 2015
Published:
21 May 2015
Abstract: In recent years the issue of climate change and its effects on various aspects of the environment has become one of the challenges facing planners. It is desirable to analyze and predict the change of critical climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, which will provide valuable reference results for future water resources planning and management in the region. The aims of this study are to test the applicability of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model in downscaling daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures in Damavand catchment in Iran and use it to predict future changes of precipitation and temperature. Future climate of the Damavand catchment is predicted by statistical downscaling outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) (HADCM3 for SRES A2 and B2 and A1B scenarios) for the period of 2046–2065.The results showed that the LARS-WG model produces excellent performance in downscaling Tmax and Tmin in the study region but compared to temperature, the model showed more error in downscaling daily precipitation. This issue was confirmed by examining the performance indicators including coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and root-mean square error. Also results showed that precipitation will decrease in future under these scenarios but temperature will increase. Findings of this study will serve as a reference for further studies and planning of future water management strategies in the Damavand catchment.
Abstract: In recent years the issue of climate change and its effects on various aspects of the environment has become one of the challenges facing planners. It is desirable to analyze and predict the change of critical climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, which will provide valuable reference results for future water resources planning...
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Some Characteristics of Seismic Activity in the Song Tranh 2 Reservoir, Quang Nam, Vietnam by Local Seismic Network Data
Nguyen Van Giang,
Jan Wiszniowski,
Beata Plesiewicz,
Grzegorz Lizurek,
Dinh Quoc Van,
Le Quang Khoi
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015
Pages:
101-111
Received:
5 May 2015
Accepted:
20 May 2015
Published:
1 June 2015
Abstract: The Song Tranh 2 hydropower construction is located in the Quang Nam province (central Vietnam), it has a reservoir volume of 740 million cubic meters of water and a dam height of 96 m. The reservoir was filled to capacity for the first time in February 2011 to about 160m, then it dropped to 140 m in July 2011. The filling of reservoir started again in August 2011 and the maximum water level of 175 m was reached in October 2011. Song Tranh 2 and its surrounding regions suffered from earthquakes in March 2011, it also suffered from a higher magnitude earthquake in October and November, 2012 of M=4.6 and 4.7 respectively. By the end of 2012, a seismic network including 6 stations was set up around the Song Tranh 2 reservoir area and a full network of 10 stations was set up by August 2013. The final seismic network is capable of detecting and locating weaker seismic earthquakes. It is also possible to calculate the extended source parameters like focal mechanism, slip direction etc. In the period from August 2013 to May 2014 about 2000 seismic events were detected, and 359 of them were localized and magnitudes were calculated. Seismic analysis and update catalogues are currently being conducted. The LocSAT application was used to locate events, to perform hypocentral inversion of the phase arrival data, to estimate the origin time, epicentral location, and depth by registered data from the VERIS network. Mechanism solutions with P-wave amplitude inversion of three events were determined. It suggests that reservoir construction is a major factor in the seismogenic process.
Abstract: The Song Tranh 2 hydropower construction is located in the Quang Nam province (central Vietnam), it has a reservoir volume of 740 million cubic meters of water and a dam height of 96 m. The reservoir was filled to capacity for the first time in February 2011 to about 160m, then it dropped to 140 m in July 2011. The filling of reservoir started agai...
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Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015
Pages:
112-119
Received:
9 April 2015
Accepted:
11 May 2015
Published:
6 June 2015
Abstract: Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.
Abstract: Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, ...
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Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production in Rwanda
Kseniia Mikova,
Enock Makupa,
John Kayumba
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015
Pages:
120-128
Received:
27 February 2015
Accepted:
29 May 2015
Published:
11 June 2015
Abstract: For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on main crop products in Rwanda. Some rainfall data was infilled for the period of 1926-2013. It was done using the monitoring data of a neighbor weather station with relatively the same elevation above sea level and with a monitoring record of no less than 40 years. The neighboring station with the best correlation was selected for the infilling. The missing rainfall data was infilled for all the stations with resulting regression coefficients ranging from 0.55 to 0.80. This indicates the acceptability of the performed regression. Also were constructed different-cumulative curves of rainfall and sort out cycles of decline and increment of rainfall. Similar different-cumulative curves were constructed for main crops in Rwanda. Correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between rainfall, arable land expansion, fertilizer use and crop yield. Particularly for Rwandan conditions, the rainfall variations are determinant for the crop yield increment. The intensification of extreme flood’s and, as rule, flooding of agricultural lands in connection with rainfall augmentation was also allocated.
Abstract: For Africa’s developing countries the agricultural system is among the most vulnerable due to extensive use of rainfed crop production, presence of droughts and floods that affect crops as well as initial poverty of population that limits the capacity to adapt. In this study were realized the analysis of long-term rainfall data and its impact on ma...
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