An Adjusted Forward Curve for Spot Rate Forecasting
Issue:
Volume 9, Issue 1, March 2020
Pages:
1-7
Received:
7 January 2020
Accepted:
31 January 2020
Published:
11 February 2020
Abstract: In this paper, we provide adjustments for liquidity and credit risk to the forward Libor rate in order to improve accuracy of the forward rate in forecasting the 3-month Libor rate. In particular, we introduce the adjusted forward curve (AFC) that models the update in the forward curve from one period to the next. A direct modeling of the dynamic process of the forward curve facilitates the specification of adjustment factors to the forward curve, and it underscores the role of mean reversion (stationarity) in the nexus between the forward rate and the future spot rate. The AFC factors that underpin the forward curve bias are statistically relevant with p-values that are less than .00001. The upward bias in the forward curve (i.e., when the forward curve exceeds the expected future spot rate) positively correlates with the steepness of the yield curve in the AFC model. A downward bias positively correlates with the credit spread and industrial capacity utilization. Furthermore, the effect of the instantaneous forward curve on the future spot rate tempers off with time. The predictive power of the AFC model, however, hinges on the forecastability of the underlying factors. The testing indicates that all the AFC model factors have a mean reversion component. Overall, our model effectively anticipates movements in the forward curve that tend to yield a better forecast of the future spot rate.
Abstract: In this paper, we provide adjustments for liquidity and credit risk to the forward Libor rate in order to improve accuracy of the forward rate in forecasting the 3-month Libor rate. In particular, we introduce the adjusted forward curve (AFC) that models the update in the forward curve from one period to the next. A direct modeling of the dynamic p...
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Socio-economic Determinants of School Attendance of Punjab, Pakistan
Daud Rafique,
Suleman Shaukat,
Sajid Rasul,
Zahid Ahmed,
Isaac Shahzad,
Muhammad Ali Bhatti
Issue:
Volume 9, Issue 1, March 2020
Pages:
8-16
Received:
27 November 2019
Accepted:
20 January 2020
Published:
18 February 2020
Abstract: Primary education is a key indicator of social and economic development. Since independence 1947, Pakistan has been facing the issue of low attendance rate at primary level. Pakistan has been working with international organizations like UNICEF for many years but unable to achieve the goal of universal primary education. Therefore, the present study focuses on this issue, and investigate the socio-economic determinants of school attendance of primary aged children (5-9 years) at Punjab. For this purpose, the study used MICS (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey) 2014 as a data set, conducted by Punjab Bureau of Statistics with the selected sample of 31,466 children. The results of descriptive analysis suggest that children in general and girls in particular of Punjab are deprived of their basic right of education. For the regression analysis, Logistic Models are constructed for Punjab. The results of Logistic Model suggest that gender of child, area of residence, wealth quintiles, mother education, father education, gender of household head, age of a child and household size determine the school attendance. As compared to the other factors, the impact of household wealth (wealth quintiles) is found greater in this study. It suggests that large socioeconomic disparities exist in Punjab. Lastly, the study recommends some policies to increase school attendance that can ensure more educational budget for deprived areas in terms of school attendance, and how to utilize its educational budget e.g. incentives to poor households in the form of conditional cash transfers. However, Pakistan must spend standard 4 percent of its GDP on education for the enhancement of human capital in the long run.
Abstract: Primary education is a key indicator of social and economic development. Since independence 1947, Pakistan has been facing the issue of low attendance rate at primary level. Pakistan has been working with international organizations like UNICEF for many years but unable to achieve the goal of universal primary education. Therefore, the present stud...
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The Economic Cost of Gender Inequality: The Global Progress and Creating Change
June Choon Wai Yee,
Kenneth Lee Kwing-Chin
Issue:
Volume 9, Issue 1, March 2020
Pages:
17-20
Received:
29 January 2020
Accepted:
28 February 2020
Published:
6 March 2020
Abstract: Background: Gender inequality is a contentious matter that cuts across economic and social aspects that are still prevalent globally. It is often framed as a problem of women, but in reality, it is more than that. Gender gaps that include lack of under-representation of women in the workforce and especially in senior positions are significant issues that pose substantial economic costs to countries. Gender inequality often manifested as discrimination in their advancement in careers, and higher time spent on household and care duties compared to men. Methods: The economic loss that results from gender gaps were reviewed. Against the same backdrop, countries with progressive and more inclusive policies were analysed in order to draw lessons that could be potentially useful for countries that are heading the direction of narrowing if not close the gender gaps. Results: Despite there are more initiatives to address this alarming issue over the years, progress towards gender equality is still far from satisfactory and gaps remain even in the dawn of 2020. Much remains to be done. To that end, some potential solutions and policies that have proven to be cost- and time effective in pursuit of gender equality are discussed in this paper. Conclusion: We conclude that there is no blanket solution for addressing gender inequality. Achieving gender equality will most likely to remain an uphill battle, but not one that is impossible to be overcome.
Abstract: Background: Gender inequality is a contentious matter that cuts across economic and social aspects that are still prevalent globally. It is often framed as a problem of women, but in reality, it is more than that. Gender gaps that include lack of under-representation of women in the workforce and especially in senior positions are significant issue...
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