Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: 
A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023

Mohamed Riadh Cherif

doi:doi:10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023

Mohamed Riadh Cherif^*

Published in Science Discovery Agriculture (Volume 1, Issue 1)

Received: 7 July 2025 Accepted: 21 July 2025 Published: 20 February 2026

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Abstract

This study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interrelationships between climate factors, agricultural performance, and economic growth in this country over the period 1974-2023. We use an advanced econometric approach combining ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), and QARDL (Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag) models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on agricultural productivity and GDP per capita. The results highlight significant and heterogeneous climate effects, with notable asymmetry: a 1°C increase reduces agricultural GDP by 1.2% in the long term, while an equivalent decrease has no significant effect. Rainfall deficits have a greater impact on agricultural production than surpluses, with an amplified effect during periods of recession (2.3 times greater). Quantile analysis highlights structural disparities: small producers depend on imports to adapt, while large farms, although more productive, are vulnerable to heat and water stress. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of the models, with stable residuals and proven cointegration. These results highlight the need for differentiated policies, including: (1) progressive water pricing to limit overexploitation of groundwater; (2) targeted subsidies to encourage the adoption of water-efficient irrigation technologies; (3) training programs for smallholders to promote resilient practices. The study makes a significant contribution to the existing literature by proposing an innovative methodological framework for analyzing asymmetric climate effects in vulnerable agricultural economies, with direct implications for national resilience strategies, including.

Published in	Science Discovery Agriculture (Volume 1, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
Page(s)	27-42
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate, Agriculture, Economic Growth, Asymmetry, ARDL, NARDL, QARDL, Tunisia

References

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Cherif, M. R. (2026). Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Science Discovery Agriculture, 1(1), 27-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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ACS Style

Cherif, M. R. Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Sci. Discov. Agric. 2026, 1(1), 27-42. doi: 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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AMA Style

Cherif MR. Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Sci Discov Agric. 2026;1(1):27-42. doi: 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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@article{10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13,
  author = {Mohamed Riadh Cherif},
  title = {Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: 
A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023},
  journal = {Science Discovery Agriculture},
  volume = {1},
  number = {1},
  pages = {27-42},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sda.20260101.13},
  abstract = {This study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interrelationships between climate factors, agricultural performance, and economic growth in this country over the period 1974-2023. We use an advanced econometric approach combining ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), and QARDL (Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag) models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on agricultural productivity and GDP per capita. The results highlight significant and heterogeneous climate effects, with notable asymmetry: a 1°C increase reduces agricultural GDP by 1.2% in the long term, while an equivalent decrease has no significant effect. Rainfall deficits have a greater impact on agricultural production than surpluses, with an amplified effect during periods of recession (2.3 times greater). Quantile analysis highlights structural disparities: small producers depend on imports to adapt, while large farms, although more productive, are vulnerable to heat and water stress. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of the models, with stable residuals and proven cointegration. These results highlight the need for differentiated policies, including: (1) progressive water pricing to limit overexploitation of groundwater; (2) targeted subsidies to encourage the adoption of water-efficient irrigation technologies; (3) training programs for smallholders to promote resilient practices. The study makes a significant contribution to the existing literature by proposing an innovative methodological framework for analyzing asymmetric climate effects in vulnerable agricultural economies, with direct implications for national resilience strategies, including.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: 
A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023
AU  - Mohamed Riadh Cherif
Y1  - 2026/02/20
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
T2  - Science Discovery Agriculture
JF  - Science Discovery Agriculture
JO  - Science Discovery Agriculture
SP  - 27
EP  - 42
PB  - Science Publishing Group
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
AB  - This study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interrelationships between climate factors, agricultural performance, and economic growth in this country over the period 1974-2023. We use an advanced econometric approach combining ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), and QARDL (Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag) models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on agricultural productivity and GDP per capita. The results highlight significant and heterogeneous climate effects, with notable asymmetry: a 1°C increase reduces agricultural GDP by 1.2% in the long term, while an equivalent decrease has no significant effect. Rainfall deficits have a greater impact on agricultural production than surpluses, with an amplified effect during periods of recession (2.3 times greater). Quantile analysis highlights structural disparities: small producers depend on imports to adapt, while large farms, although more productive, are vulnerable to heat and water stress. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of the models, with stable residuals and proven cointegration. These results highlight the need for differentiated policies, including: (1) progressive water pricing to limit overexploitation of groundwater; (2) targeted subsidies to encourage the adoption of water-efficient irrigation technologies; (3) training programs for smallholders to promote resilient practices. The study makes a significant contribution to the existing literature by proposing an innovative methodological framework for analyzing asymmetric climate effects in vulnerable agricultural economies, with direct implications for national resilience strategies, including.
VL  - 1
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Mohamed Riadh Cherif

Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, University of Tunis el Manar, Tunis, Tunisia

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http://orcid.org/0009-0005-7649-5673

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Cherif, M. R. (2026). Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Science Discovery Agriculture, 1(1), 27-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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ACS Style

Cherif, M. R. Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Sci. Discov. Agric. 2026, 1(1), 27-42. doi: 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

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AMA Style

Cherif MR. Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023. Sci Discov Agric. 2026;1(1):27-42. doi: 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13,
  author = {Mohamed Riadh Cherif},
  title = {Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: 
A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023},
  journal = {Science Discovery Agriculture},
  volume = {1},
  number = {1},
  pages = {27-42},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sda.20260101.13},
  abstract = {This study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interrelationships between climate factors, agricultural performance, and economic growth in this country over the period 1974-2023. We use an advanced econometric approach combining ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), and QARDL (Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag) models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on agricultural productivity and GDP per capita. The results highlight significant and heterogeneous climate effects, with notable asymmetry: a 1°C increase reduces agricultural GDP by 1.2% in the long term, while an equivalent decrease has no significant effect. Rainfall deficits have a greater impact on agricultural production than surpluses, with an amplified effect during periods of recession (2.3 times greater). Quantile analysis highlights structural disparities: small producers depend on imports to adapt, while large farms, although more productive, are vulnerable to heat and water stress. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of the models, with stable residuals and proven cointegration. These results highlight the need for differentiated policies, including: (1) progressive water pricing to limit overexploitation of groundwater; (2) targeted subsidies to encourage the adoption of water-efficient irrigation technologies; (3) training programs for smallholders to promote resilient practices. The study makes a significant contribution to the existing literature by proposing an innovative methodological framework for analyzing asymmetric climate effects in vulnerable agricultural economies, with direct implications for national resilience strategies, including.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Tunisia: 
A Dynamic and Asymmetric Analysis Covering the Period 1974–2023
AU  - Mohamed Riadh Cherif
Y1  - 2026/02/20
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
T2  - Science Discovery Agriculture
JF  - Science Discovery Agriculture
JO  - Science Discovery Agriculture
SP  - 27
EP  - 42
PB  - Science Publishing Group
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sda.20260101.13
AB  - This study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interrelationships between climate factors, agricultural performance, and economic growth in this country over the period 1974-2023. We use an advanced econometric approach combining ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), and QARDL (Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag) models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on agricultural productivity and GDP per capita. The results highlight significant and heterogeneous climate effects, with notable asymmetry: a 1°C increase reduces agricultural GDP by 1.2% in the long term, while an equivalent decrease has no significant effect. Rainfall deficits have a greater impact on agricultural production than surpluses, with an amplified effect during periods of recession (2.3 times greater). Quantile analysis highlights structural disparities: small producers depend on imports to adapt, while large farms, although more productive, are vulnerable to heat and water stress. Robustness tests confirmed the validity of the models, with stable residuals and proven cointegration. These results highlight the need for differentiated policies, including: (1) progressive water pricing to limit overexploitation of groundwater; (2) targeted subsidies to encourage the adoption of water-efficient irrigation technologies; (3) training programs for smallholders to promote resilient practices. The study makes a significant contribution to the existing literature by proposing an innovative methodological framework for analyzing asymmetric climate effects in vulnerable agricultural economies, with direct implications for national resilience strategies, including.
VL  - 1
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download