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Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of P-to-S Wave Velocities

Received: 27 November 2020     Accepted: 9 December 2020     Published: 16 December 2020
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Abstract

The ratio of P-to-S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) is considered as one of the important measures of stressed natural rocks. The changes of this ratio were observed in various earthquakes, however the time of occurrence of the earthquakes were not determined, since the predictions were not combined with other prediction methods. This discriminant provides information about formation and evolution of composition for the earth’s crust. In addition, the changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are the possibly reliable direction to realizing the mechanics and probably predicting earthquakes. However, due to lattice orientations of anisotropic minerals, most of earth’s rocks are anisotropic and there exist cracks and thin layerings. The changing patterns in Vp/Vs acquired from seismic propagations can be readily analyzed according to the ray path and the polarization of the (P) pressure and (S) shear waves. The variations in their ratios carry information about stress variations of THE crust of the earth. The arising stresses in rocks are the messengers of possible earthquakes. The stations with monitoring devices and Geographical Positioning System (GPS) upgraded WI-FI remote data acquisition system can serve monitoring stress and movements in the earth’s crust. In view present technological developments, the system is reasonable cost effective and prediction of earthquakes can be possible in narrowed time interval. The laboratory tests will be also part of the prediction process.

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 9, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11
Page(s) 227-231
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

P Waves, S Waves, Earthquake Predictions, Rayleigh Waves, Love Waves, Material Constants

References
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[2] Susan E. Hough, Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, ISBN 9780691173306, 2016.
[3] H. Güllü, “On the prediction of shear wave velocity at local site of strong ground motion stations: an application using artificial intelligence”, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 11: 969–997, doi: 10.1007/s10518-013-9425-8, 2013.
[4] Yash P. Aggarwal, Sykes, Lynn R., Simpson, “David W., Richards, Paul G., “Spatial and temporal variations in t s / t p and in P wave residuals at Blue Mountain Lake, New York: Application to earthquake prediction”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 80, No. 5, doi: 10.1029/jb080i005p00718, 1975.
[5] Ramón Verdugo, “Experimental and conceptual evidence about the limitations of shear wave velocity to predict liquefaction”, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, doi: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2016.09.046, 2016.
[6] Hong-gui Liu, Wang, Pei-ling, Yang, Cai-xia, Xu Ge, Sun Ye-jun, Chen, Zhang-li, Zheng, Si-hua. “Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction”, Acta Seismologica Sinica Vol. 20 No. 4 (467~476), doi: 10.1007/s11589-007-0467-3, 2007.
[7] Amoroso Sara. “Prediction of the shear wave velocity VS from CPT and DMT at research sites”, Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 8, doi: 10.1007/s11709-013-0234-6, 2014.
[8] Stuart Crampin, Booth, David C., Evans, Russ, Peacock, Sheila, Fletcher, Jon B., Comment on “Quantitative measurements of shear wave polarizations at the Anza Seismic Network, southern California: Implications for shear wave splitting and earthquake prediction” by Richard C. Aster, Peter M. Shearer, and Jon Berger, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 96, No. B4, pp 6403-6414, doi: 10.1029/90jb02453, 1991.
[9] H. M. Cekirge, Prediction of Earthquakes by Observing Changes in Seismic Wave Velocities (Turkish), Thesis for Dozentship, Bogazici University, Istanbul, 1979.
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[12] Marius Vassiliou and Kanamori, H., “The Energy Release in Earthquakes”, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72: 371–387, 1982.
[13] Qian Wang, Zhiqin, X. U. and Shaocheng, J. I., “Vp/Vs Anisotropy and Implications for Crustal Composition Identification and Earthquake Prediction”, Acta Geologica Sinica - English Edition. Volume 83, Issue 4, 2009.
[14] Keiiti Aki and Richards, P. G., Quantitative seismology, 2nd edn. University Science Books, Freeman, San Francisco, 2002.
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[16] Kyosuke Okamoto, Yi, L., Asanuma, H., Okabe, T., Abe, Y. and Tsuzuki, M., “Triggering processes of Microseismic Events Associated with Water Injection in Okuaizu Geothermal Field, Japan, Earth, Planets and Space”, volume 70, Article number: 15, 2018.
[17] Shunsuke Takemura, Kobayashi, M. and Yoshimoto, K., “Prediction of Maximum P- and S-Wave Amplitude Distributions Incorporating Frequency- and Distance-Dependent Characteristics of the Observed Apparent Radiation Patterns”, Earth, Planets and Space volume 68, Article number: 166. 2016.
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Huseyin Murat Cekirge. (2020). Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of P-to-S Wave Velocities. Earth Sciences, 9(6), 227-231. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11

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    ACS Style

    Huseyin Murat Cekirge. Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of P-to-S Wave Velocities. Earth Sci. 2020, 9(6), 227-231. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11

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    AMA Style

    Huseyin Murat Cekirge. Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of P-to-S Wave Velocities. Earth Sci. 2020;9(6):227-231. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11,
      author = {Huseyin Murat Cekirge},
      title = {Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of P-to-S Wave Velocities},
      journal = {Earth Sciences},
      volume = {9},
      number = {6},
      pages = {227-231},
      doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200906.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20200906.11},
      abstract = {The ratio of P-to-S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) is considered as one of the important measures of stressed natural rocks. The changes of this ratio were observed in various earthquakes, however the time of occurrence of the earthquakes were not determined, since the predictions were not combined with other prediction methods. This discriminant provides information about formation and evolution of composition for the earth’s crust. In addition, the changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are the possibly reliable direction to realizing the mechanics and probably predicting earthquakes. However, due to lattice orientations of anisotropic minerals, most of earth’s rocks are anisotropic and there exist cracks and thin layerings. The changing patterns in Vp/Vs acquired from seismic propagations can be readily analyzed according to the ray path and the polarization of the (P) pressure and (S) shear waves. The variations in their ratios carry information about stress variations of THE crust of the earth. The arising stresses in rocks are the messengers of possible earthquakes. The stations with monitoring devices and Geographical Positioning System (GPS) upgraded WI-FI remote data acquisition system can serve monitoring stress and movements in the earth’s crust. In view present technological developments, the system is reasonable cost effective and prediction of earthquakes can be possible in narrowed time interval. The laboratory tests will be also part of the prediction process.},
     year = {2020}
    }
    

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    AB  - The ratio of P-to-S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) is considered as one of the important measures of stressed natural rocks. The changes of this ratio were observed in various earthquakes, however the time of occurrence of the earthquakes were not determined, since the predictions were not combined with other prediction methods. This discriminant provides information about formation and evolution of composition for the earth’s crust. In addition, the changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are the possibly reliable direction to realizing the mechanics and probably predicting earthquakes. However, due to lattice orientations of anisotropic minerals, most of earth’s rocks are anisotropic and there exist cracks and thin layerings. The changing patterns in Vp/Vs acquired from seismic propagations can be readily analyzed according to the ray path and the polarization of the (P) pressure and (S) shear waves. The variations in their ratios carry information about stress variations of THE crust of the earth. The arising stresses in rocks are the messengers of possible earthquakes. The stations with monitoring devices and Geographical Positioning System (GPS) upgraded WI-FI remote data acquisition system can serve monitoring stress and movements in the earth’s crust. In view present technological developments, the system is reasonable cost effective and prediction of earthquakes can be possible in narrowed time interval. The laboratory tests will be also part of the prediction process.
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Author Information
  • Mechanical Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, USA

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