Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production

Birhan Ambachew Taye; Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw; Bantie Getnet Yirsaw; Alemayehu Amsalu Alen

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production

Birhan Ambachew Taye, Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw, Bantie Getnet Yirsaw, Alemayehu Amsalu Alen

Published in American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics (Volume 7, Issue 2)

Received: 19 March 2021 Accepted: 21 May 2021 Published: 31 May 2021

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Abstract

Agriculture is a confirmed path to success. No region of the world has developed a diverse, modern economy without first establishing a successful foundation in agriculture. Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been recorded in Ethiopian antiquity. The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and fertilizers applied on barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017 using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach. The mean barley yield was 11.47 quintal per hectare. The Long run bounded test for cointegration among the variables show signal of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. Based on the value of adjusted R², the explanatory variables explained almost 76% of the variation in the yield of barley. In the long run estimates every 1% rise in current average dap decrease the yield per hectare of barley by 28.76% at citrus paribus and a 1% rise in current precipitation and rainfall increase the yield of barley by 2.768% and 0.41% respectively keeping the effect of one variable to the other constant. The speed of adjustment is -0.381557 which is highly significant indicating the speed of the adjustment back to the long run equilibrium after a short run shock.

Published in	American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics (Volume 7, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
Page(s)	44-51
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Agriculture, Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Cointegration

References

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[4]	Ferede, T., et al., Agroecology matters: impacts of climate change on agriculture and its implications for food security in Ethiopia. Global food security: Emerging issues and economic implications, 2013: p. 71–112.
[5]	Deressa, T. T. and R. M. Hassan, Economic impact of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia: Evidence from cross-section measures. Journal of African economies, 2009. 18: p. 529–554.
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[7]	Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 2001. 16: p. 289–326.
[8]	Gujarati, D. N., Basic econometrics. 2009: Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
[9]	Pesaran, M. H. and Y. Shin, An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 1998. 31: p. 371–413.
[10]	Wooldridge, J. M., Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. 2015: Nelson Education.
[11]	Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger, Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1987: p. 251–276.
[12]	Banerjee, A., J. Dolado, and R. Mestre, Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of time series analysis, 1998. 19: p. 267–283.
[13]	Mukaras, M., Fundamental Principles of Time Series Econometrics, Theory and Applications. 2012.
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APA Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye, Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw, Bantie Getnet Yirsaw, Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. (2021). Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics, 7(2), 44-51. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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ACS Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye; Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw; Bantie Getnet Yirsaw; Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. Am. J. Biol. Environ. Stat. 2021, 7(2), 44-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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AMA Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye, Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw, Bantie Getnet Yirsaw, Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. Am J Biol Environ Stat. 2021;7(2):44-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12,
  author = {Birhan Ambachew Taye and Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw and Bantie Getnet Yirsaw and Alemayehu Amsalu Alen},
  title = {Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production},
  journal = {American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {2},
  pages = {44-51},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  abstract = {Agriculture is a confirmed path to success. No region of the world has developed a diverse, modern economy without first establishing a successful foundation in agriculture. Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been recorded in Ethiopian antiquity. The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and fertilizers applied on barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017 using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach. The mean barley yield was 11.47 quintal per hectare. The Long run bounded test for cointegration among the variables show signal of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. Based on the value of adjusted R2, the explanatory variables explained almost 76% of the variation in the yield of barley. In the long run estimates every 1% rise in current average dap decrease the yield per hectare of barley by 28.76% at citrus paribus and a 1% rise in current precipitation and rainfall increase the yield of barley by 2.768% and 0.41% respectively keeping the effect of one variable to the other constant. The speed of adjustment is -0.381557 which is highly significant indicating the speed of the adjustment back to the long run equilibrium after a short run shock.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production
AU  - Birhan Ambachew Taye
AU  - Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw
AU  - Bantie Getnet Yirsaw
AU  - Alemayehu Amsalu Alen
Y1  - 2021/05/31
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
T2  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
SP  - 44
EP  - 51
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2471-979X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
AB  - Agriculture is a confirmed path to success. No region of the world has developed a diverse, modern economy without first establishing a successful foundation in agriculture. Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been recorded in Ethiopian antiquity. The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and fertilizers applied on barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017 using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach. The mean barley yield was 11.47 quintal per hectare. The Long run bounded test for cointegration among the variables show signal of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. Based on the value of adjusted R2, the explanatory variables explained almost 76% of the variation in the yield of barley. In the long run estimates every 1% rise in current average dap decrease the yield per hectare of barley by 28.76% at citrus paribus and a 1% rise in current precipitation and rainfall increase the yield of barley by 2.768% and 0.41% respectively keeping the effect of one variable to the other constant. The speed of adjustment is -0.381557 which is highly significant indicating the speed of the adjustment back to the long run equilibrium after a short run shock.
VL  - 7
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Birhan Ambachew Taye

Department of Statistics, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw

Department of Statistics, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Bantie Getnet Yirsaw

Department of Statistics, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
Alemayehu Amsalu Alen

Department of Statistics, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye, Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw, Bantie Getnet Yirsaw, Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. (2021). Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics, 7(2), 44-51. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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ACS Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye; Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw; Bantie Getnet Yirsaw; Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. Am. J. Biol. Environ. Stat. 2021, 7(2), 44-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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AMA Style

Birhan Ambachew Taye, Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw, Bantie Getnet Yirsaw, Alemayehu Amsalu Alen. Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production. Am J Biol Environ Stat. 2021;7(2):44-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12,
  author = {Birhan Ambachew Taye and Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw and Bantie Getnet Yirsaw and Alemayehu Amsalu Alen},
  title = {Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production},
  journal = {American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {2},
  pages = {44-51},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajbes.20210702.12},
  abstract = {Agriculture is a confirmed path to success. No region of the world has developed a diverse, modern economy without first establishing a successful foundation in agriculture. Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been recorded in Ethiopian antiquity. The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and fertilizers applied on barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017 using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach. The mean barley yield was 11.47 quintal per hectare. The Long run bounded test for cointegration among the variables show signal of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. Based on the value of adjusted R2, the explanatory variables explained almost 76% of the variation in the yield of barley. In the long run estimates every 1% rise in current average dap decrease the yield per hectare of barley by 28.76% at citrus paribus and a 1% rise in current precipitation and rainfall increase the yield of barley by 2.768% and 0.41% respectively keeping the effect of one variable to the other constant. The speed of adjustment is -0.381557 which is highly significant indicating the speed of the adjustment back to the long run equilibrium after a short run shock.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling the Impact of Climate and Fertilizer on Barley Production
AU  - Birhan Ambachew Taye
AU  - Fasiledes Fetene Asfaw
AU  - Bantie Getnet Yirsaw
AU  - Alemayehu Amsalu Alen
Y1  - 2021/05/31
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
T2  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
SP  - 44
EP  - 51
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2471-979X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20210702.12
AB  - Agriculture is a confirmed path to success. No region of the world has developed a diverse, modern economy without first establishing a successful foundation in agriculture. Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been recorded in Ethiopian antiquity. The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and fertilizers applied on barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017 using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach. The mean barley yield was 11.47 quintal per hectare. The Long run bounded test for cointegration among the variables show signal of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. Based on the value of adjusted R2, the explanatory variables explained almost 76% of the variation in the yield of barley. In the long run estimates every 1% rise in current average dap decrease the yield per hectare of barley by 28.76% at citrus paribus and a 1% rise in current precipitation and rainfall increase the yield of barley by 2.768% and 0.41% respectively keeping the effect of one variable to the other constant. The speed of adjustment is -0.381557 which is highly significant indicating the speed of the adjustment back to the long run equilibrium after a short run shock.
VL  - 7
IS  - 2
ER  -

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