Research Article
Geospatial Modeling of Urban Sprawl in Bharatpur Metropolitan City
Sadhuram Lamichhane*
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
96-109
Received:
3 September 2025
Accepted:
13 January 2026
Published:
28 April 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.urp.20261102.11
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Abstract: Rapid socioeconomic developments have spurred urban sprawl in Nepal. Bharatpur Metropolitan City (BMC) in recent decades, resulting in notable changes to the land use and environment. Using Landsat images and GIS-based methods, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban sprawl from 1990 to 2020 and projects future growth through 2040. Built-up areas expanded by over 20 times, from 3.29 km2 in 1990 to 64.32 km2 in 2020, according to the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) categorization. At the same time, there was a significant amount of land conversion as agricultural land decreased from 221.88 km2 to 193.90 km2 and barren land decreased by more than 60%. Three predominant types of urban sprawl were found: leapfrog (important within 0–30 km buffers), infill (8.94 km2), and extension (103.48 km2). The most common areas for extension-type sprawl were those between 0 and 5 km. Built-up area is expected to rise by 132% from 2020 levels to 113.25 km2 by 2030 and 149.33 km2 by 2040, according to spatiotemporal analysis and CA-Markov modelling. By 2040, this growth is expected to further reduce the amount of agricultural land to 118.78 km2. These results underline how urgently urban planning interventions are needed to manage haphazard development, protect arable land, and direct sustainable growth. The study shows how important it is to combine predictive modelling, spatial analysis, and remote sensing to inform land use regulations in areas that are rapidly becoming more urbanized.
Abstract: Rapid socioeconomic developments have spurred urban sprawl in Nepal. Bharatpur Metropolitan City (BMC) in recent decades, resulting in notable changes to the land use and environment. Using Landsat images and GIS-based methods, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban sprawl from 1990 to 2020 and projects future growth through...
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