Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model

Farah Yasmeen

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model

Farah Yasmeen

Published in International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 3, Issue 4)

Received: 10 March 2017 Accepted: 29 March 2017 Published: 28 November 2017

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Abstract

Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black and white women in the United States. Some of the studies also showed that the disparity in breast cancer incidence rates among white and black US women is widening, with relatively higher incidence rates among black women. In this paper, we apply functional time series (FTS) models on the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates for these two major groups of women in US, and forecast their age-incidence curves. The data are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the United States. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer incidence rates from 1973 to 2013 in 5-year agegroups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and 85+). Age-specific cancer incidence curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional data paradigm and we fit functional time series (FTS) models for each population of women separately. The smoothed incidence curves are then forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated. Fifteen-year forecasts indicate an overall increase in future breast cancer incidence rates for both groups of women. This increase appears to be faster among black women and relatively slower among the whites. The projections suggest a need for equal delivery of quality care to eliminate breast cancer disparities among the two major groups of women in US.

Published in	International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 3, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
Page(s)	103-112
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Breast Cancer, Cancer Incidence, Screening and Early Detection, Functional Time Series, Forecasts, Black and White Disparity

References

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APA Style

Farah Yasmeen. (2017). Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 3(4), 103-112. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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ACS Style

Farah Yasmeen. Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2017, 3(4), 103-112. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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AMA Style

Farah Yasmeen. Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2017;3(4):103-112. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17,
  author = {Farah Yasmeen},
  title = {Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {103-112},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  abstract = {Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black and white women in the United States. Some of the studies also showed that the disparity in breast cancer incidence rates among white and black US women is widening, with relatively higher incidence rates among black women. In this paper, we apply functional time series (FTS) models on the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates for these two major groups of women in US, and forecast their age-incidence curves. The data are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the United States. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer incidence rates from 1973 to 2013 in 5-year agegroups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and 85+). Age-specific cancer incidence curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional data paradigm and we fit functional time series (FTS) models for each population of women separately. The smoothed incidence curves are then forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated. Fifteen-year forecasts indicate an overall increase in future breast cancer incidence rates for both groups of women. This increase appears to be faster among black women and relatively slower among the whites. The projections suggest a need for equal delivery of quality care to eliminate breast cancer disparities among the two major groups of women in US.},
 year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model
AU  - Farah Yasmeen
Y1  - 2017/11/28
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 103
EP  - 112
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
AB  - Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black and white women in the United States. Some of the studies also showed that the disparity in breast cancer incidence rates among white and black US women is widening, with relatively higher incidence rates among black women. In this paper, we apply functional time series (FTS) models on the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates for these two major groups of women in US, and forecast their age-incidence curves. The data are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the United States. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer incidence rates from 1973 to 2013 in 5-year agegroups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and 85+). Age-specific cancer incidence curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional data paradigm and we fit functional time series (FTS) models for each population of women separately. The smoothed incidence curves are then forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated. Fifteen-year forecasts indicate an overall increase in future breast cancer incidence rates for both groups of women. This increase appears to be faster among black women and relatively slower among the whites. The projections suggest a need for equal delivery of quality care to eliminate breast cancer disparities among the two major groups of women in US.
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Farah Yasmeen

Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan

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Farah Yasmeen. (2017). Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 3(4), 103-112. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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ACS Style

Farah Yasmeen. Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2017, 3(4), 103-112. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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AMA Style

Farah Yasmeen. Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2017;3(4):103-112. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17,
  author = {Farah Yasmeen},
  title = {Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {103-112},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20170304.17},
  abstract = {Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black and white women in the United States. Some of the studies also showed that the disparity in breast cancer incidence rates among white and black US women is widening, with relatively higher incidence rates among black women. In this paper, we apply functional time series (FTS) models on the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates for these two major groups of women in US, and forecast their age-incidence curves. The data are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the United States. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer incidence rates from 1973 to 2013 in 5-year agegroups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and 85+). Age-specific cancer incidence curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional data paradigm and we fit functional time series (FTS) models for each population of women separately. The smoothed incidence curves are then forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated. Fifteen-year forecasts indicate an overall increase in future breast cancer incidence rates for both groups of women. This increase appears to be faster among black women and relatively slower among the whites. The projections suggest a need for equal delivery of quality care to eliminate breast cancer disparities among the two major groups of women in US.},
 year = {2017}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting Breast Cancer Incidence Rates Among White and Black Women in the United States: An Application of FTS Model
AU  - Farah Yasmeen
Y1  - 2017/11/28
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 103
EP  - 112
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20170304.17
AB  - Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black and white women in the United States. Some of the studies also showed that the disparity in breast cancer incidence rates among white and black US women is widening, with relatively higher incidence rates among black women. In this paper, we apply functional time series (FTS) models on the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates for these two major groups of women in US, and forecast their age-incidence curves. The data are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the United States. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer incidence rates from 1973 to 2013 in 5-year agegroups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and 85+). Age-specific cancer incidence curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional data paradigm and we fit functional time series (FTS) models for each population of women separately. The smoothed incidence curves are then forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated. Fifteen-year forecasts indicate an overall increase in future breast cancer incidence rates for both groups of women. This increase appears to be faster among black women and relatively slower among the whites. The projections suggest a need for equal delivery of quality care to eliminate breast cancer disparities among the two major groups of women in US.
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
ER  -

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