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The Assessment of Construction Project Risks with the Use of Fuzzy Delphi Methodology- Case Study Photovoltaic Project in Greece

Received: 14 May 2017     Accepted: 14 June 2017     Published: 17 May 2018
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Abstract

In this paper a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop qualitative risk assessment in a IPMA project. A common language for describing risks so as to achieve consistent quantification likelihoods and impacts is presented. The relationships between risks and their consequences are represented. These diagrams and the concepts of Fuzzy Delphi method are applied to identify relationships between risks and consequences on project performance measures. A methodology based on IPMA Competence Baseline (ICB) standards and Fuzzy Delphi developed by the International Project Management Association’s (IPMA) and the project management baseline (pmb) is described. Following a similar approach, a relative small, low budget and non-complex photovoltaic power plant, presenting an actual case study of the installation of a 10 kW, roof-top, integrated photovoltaic system, for domestic use, in a residence building in the region of East Attica, Greece is presented. At first, a brief description of the system of the project is summarized, including general information and basic technical characteristics. Next, the basic project planning documents, in the form of tables or charts, are deployed, taking into account the sequence they follow and the interrelationships between them. Finally, general conclusions regarding the whole process are stated.

Published in International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems (Volume 4, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12
Page(s) 7-14
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Fuzzy Logic. Fuzzy Delphi, Risk Assessment, Project Management Standards, IPMA Competence Baseline, Project Management Baseline, Photovoltaic Systems

References
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[2] Chapman, C., (1997). Project risk analysis and management – the PRAM generic process, International Journal of Project Management, 15, 273–281.
[3] An M., Baker C., and Zeng, J., (2005), A Fuzzy Logic-Based Approach to Qualitative Risk Modeling in the Construction Process, World Journal of Engineering, 2, 1-2. M.
[4] PMBOK® Guide and Standards https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards.
[5] Nieto-Morote, A., Ruz-Vila, F., (2011). A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment, International Journal of Project Management, 29, 220–23.
[6] KarimiAzari, et al. (2011). Risk assessment model selection in construction industry, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, 9105–9111.
[7] Bannerman, P. L. (2008). Risk and risk management in software projects: A reassessment. The Journal of Systems and Software, 81(12), 2118–2133.
[8] Cooper, D. F., Champan, C. B., (1987). Risk Analysis for a Large Project. Wiley, Chichester.
[9] Klemetti, A. (2006). Risk management in construction project networks. Report 2006/ 2. Finland: Laboratory of Industrial Management, Helsinki University of Technology.
[10] Tah, J. H. M., Thorpe, A., McCaffer, R.,(1993). Contactor project risks contingency allocation using linguistic approximation. Computing System in Engineering, 4, 281–293.
[11] Wirba, E. N., Tah, J. H. M., Howes, R., (1996). Risk interdependencies and natural language computations. Journal of Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 3, 251–269.
[12] Zadeh, L. A., (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information Control 8, 338–353.
[13] Cabaniss, K. (2001) Counseling and computer technology in the new millennium – an internet Delphi study, Ph.D dissertation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Virginia, U.S.A. Wireless LAN Medium Access Control (MAC) and Physical Layer (PHY) Specification, IEEE Std. 802.11, 1997.
[14] O. G. Manoliadis, J. P. Pantouvakis, S. E. Christodoulou, Improving qualifications-based selection by use of the fuzzy Delphi method, Construction Management and Economics, 27, 4, 373-384, 2009.
[15] ΙCB – IPMA Competence Baseline, Version 3.0 (2006). Nijkerk: IPMA Standards of IPMA World v.4 http://www.ipma.world/resources/standards/
[16] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics.
[17] Petridis, D. P. (2014). Design and construction of an integrated photovoltaic system into a residence, with the IPMA management method (in Greek) (M.Sc. Thesis). Open University of Athens.
[18] Gareis, R. (2006). Happy Projects! (in German), 3rd Edition, Manz Verlag.
[19] Lock, D. (2013). Project Management, 10th Edition, Gower Publishing Limited, U.K
[20] Pantouvakis, J. P. (2013). Project Management with IPMA standards (in Greek), Athens. Hellenic Open University, Patra, Greece.
[21] Reyes, J. and Almela J. M. (2006). Processes in Projects and Project Management Competences (in Spanish). Confirmation of revised paper submitted.
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  • APA Style

    Odysseas Manoliadis. (2018). The Assessment of Construction Project Risks with the Use of Fuzzy Delphi Methodology- Case Study Photovoltaic Project in Greece. International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems, 4(1), 7-14. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12

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    ACS Style

    Odysseas Manoliadis. The Assessment of Construction Project Risks with the Use of Fuzzy Delphi Methodology- Case Study Photovoltaic Project in Greece. Int. J. Manag. Fuzzy Syst. 2018, 4(1), 7-14. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12

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    AMA Style

    Odysseas Manoliadis. The Assessment of Construction Project Risks with the Use of Fuzzy Delphi Methodology- Case Study Photovoltaic Project in Greece. Int J Manag Fuzzy Syst. 2018;4(1):7-14. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12,
      author = {Odysseas Manoliadis},
      title = {The Assessment of Construction Project Risks with the Use of Fuzzy Delphi Methodology- Case Study Photovoltaic Project in Greece},
      journal = {International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems},
      volume = {4},
      number = {1},
      pages = {7-14},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180401.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijmfs.20180401.12},
      abstract = {In this paper a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop qualitative risk assessment in a IPMA project. A common language for describing risks so as to achieve consistent quantification likelihoods and impacts is presented. The relationships between risks and their consequences are represented. These diagrams and the concepts of Fuzzy Delphi method are applied to identify relationships between risks and consequences on project performance measures. A methodology based on IPMA Competence Baseline (ICB) standards and Fuzzy Delphi developed by the International Project Management Association’s (IPMA) and the project management baseline (pmb) is described. Following a similar approach, a relative small, low budget and non-complex photovoltaic power plant, presenting an actual case study of the installation of a 10 kW, roof-top, integrated photovoltaic system, for domestic use, in a residence building in the region of East Attica, Greece is presented. At first, a brief description of the system of the project is summarized, including general information and basic technical characteristics. Next, the basic project planning documents, in the form of tables or charts, are deployed, taking into account the sequence they follow and the interrelationships between them. Finally, general conclusions regarding the whole process are stated.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

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    T2  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
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    AB  - In this paper a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop qualitative risk assessment in a IPMA project. A common language for describing risks so as to achieve consistent quantification likelihoods and impacts is presented. The relationships between risks and their consequences are represented. These diagrams and the concepts of Fuzzy Delphi method are applied to identify relationships between risks and consequences on project performance measures. A methodology based on IPMA Competence Baseline (ICB) standards and Fuzzy Delphi developed by the International Project Management Association’s (IPMA) and the project management baseline (pmb) is described. Following a similar approach, a relative small, low budget and non-complex photovoltaic power plant, presenting an actual case study of the installation of a 10 kW, roof-top, integrated photovoltaic system, for domestic use, in a residence building in the region of East Attica, Greece is presented. At first, a brief description of the system of the project is summarized, including general information and basic technical characteristics. Next, the basic project planning documents, in the form of tables or charts, are deployed, taking into account the sequence they follow and the interrelationships between them. Finally, general conclusions regarding the whole process are stated.
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Author Information
  • Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, Xanthi, Greece

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