Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory<br />
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Zhie Wang; Jingde Xu; Jun Ma

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

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Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory

Zhie Wang, Jingde Xu, Jun Ma

Published in International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 8, Issue 5)

Received: 1 September 2023 Accepted: 23 October 2023 Published: 28 October 2023

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Abstract

The prediction of coal and gas outburst risk can effectively prevent underground coal mine accidents. Due to the overlapping, coupling and complexity of coal and gas outburst in the development process, coal and gas outburst is generally Gaussian distribution or nearly Gaussian distribution, especially when the sample data in the research area is not accurate or the information is insufficient, the traditional evaluation model and method have certain limitations. To further improve the scientific and accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst risk level, a coupling model of coal and gas outburst risk assessment is established based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (MCS) and triangular fuzzy number (TFN) theory. Firstly, the index weight measurement value is determined by using expert opinions and AHP method. Then, the risk level and risk importance of coal and gas outburst risk assessment index are quantitatively described by using fuzzy semantics with five-level classification standards. Finally, the confidence interval of the comprehensive risk value of the coal mines to be evaluated in the research area is established. The research results show that after 20,000 simulation experiments with the coupling model, the calculation results have converged, and the confidence interval value of the system comprehensive risk simulation value of each coal mine is 95%, which can provide relevant decision support for the prevention and control planning of coal and gas outburst.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 8, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
Page(s)	107-117
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Coal, Coal and Gas Outburst, Risk Assessment, Triangular Fuzzy Number Theory, Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation

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APA Style

Zhie Wang, Jingde Xu, Jun Ma. (2023). Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 8(5), 107-117. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

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ACS Style

Zhie Wang; Jingde Xu; Jun Ma. Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2023, 8(5), 107-117. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

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AMA Style

Zhie Wang, Jingde Xu, Jun Ma. Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2023;8(5):107-117. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13,
  author = {Zhie Wang and Jingde Xu and Jun Ma},
  title = {Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory

	
},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {8},
  number = {5},
  pages = {107-117},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20230805.13},
  abstract = {The prediction of coal and gas outburst risk can effectively prevent underground coal mine accidents. Due to the overlapping, coupling and complexity of coal and gas outburst in the development process, coal and gas outburst is generally Gaussian distribution or nearly Gaussian distribution, especially when the sample data in the research area is not accurate or the information is insufficient, the traditional evaluation model and method have certain limitations. To further improve the scientific and accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst risk level, a coupling model of coal and gas outburst risk assessment is established based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (MCS) and triangular fuzzy number (TFN) theory. Firstly, the index weight measurement value is determined by using expert opinions and AHP method. Then, the risk level and risk importance of coal and gas outburst risk assessment index are quantitatively described by using fuzzy semantics with five-level classification standards. Finally, the confidence interval of the comprehensive risk value of the coal mines to be evaluated in the research area is established. The research results show that after 20,000 simulation experiments with the coupling model, the calculation results have converged, and the confidence interval value of the system comprehensive risk simulation value of each coal mine is 95%, which can provide relevant decision support for the prevention and control planning of coal and gas outburst.
},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory

	

AU  - Zhie Wang
AU  - Jingde Xu
AU  - Jun Ma
Y1  - 2023/10/28
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 107
EP  - 117
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
AB  - The prediction of coal and gas outburst risk can effectively prevent underground coal mine accidents. Due to the overlapping, coupling and complexity of coal and gas outburst in the development process, coal and gas outburst is generally Gaussian distribution or nearly Gaussian distribution, especially when the sample data in the research area is not accurate or the information is insufficient, the traditional evaluation model and method have certain limitations. To further improve the scientific and accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst risk level, a coupling model of coal and gas outburst risk assessment is established based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (MCS) and triangular fuzzy number (TFN) theory. Firstly, the index weight measurement value is determined by using expert opinions and AHP method. Then, the risk level and risk importance of coal and gas outburst risk assessment index are quantitatively described by using fuzzy semantics with five-level classification standards. Finally, the confidence interval of the comprehensive risk value of the coal mines to be evaluated in the research area is established. The research results show that after 20,000 simulation experiments with the coupling model, the calculation results have converged, and the confidence interval value of the system comprehensive risk simulation value of each coal mine is 95%, which can provide relevant decision support for the prevention and control planning of coal and gas outburst.

VL  - 8
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Zhie Wang

School of Management Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China
Jingde Xu

Institute of Higher Education, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Langfang, China
Jun Ma

School of Management Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Zhie Wang, Jingde Xu, Jun Ma. (2023). Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 8(5), 107-117. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

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ACS Style

Zhie Wang; Jingde Xu; Jun Ma. Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2023, 8(5), 107-117. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Zhie Wang, Jingde Xu, Jun Ma. Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory . Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2023;8(5):107-117. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13,
  author = {Zhie Wang and Jingde Xu and Jun Ma},
  title = {Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory

	
},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {8},
  number = {5},
  pages = {107-117},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20230805.13},
  abstract = {The prediction of coal and gas outburst risk can effectively prevent underground coal mine accidents. Due to the overlapping, coupling and complexity of coal and gas outburst in the development process, coal and gas outburst is generally Gaussian distribution or nearly Gaussian distribution, especially when the sample data in the research area is not accurate or the information is insufficient, the traditional evaluation model and method have certain limitations. To further improve the scientific and accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst risk level, a coupling model of coal and gas outburst risk assessment is established based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (MCS) and triangular fuzzy number (TFN) theory. Firstly, the index weight measurement value is determined by using expert opinions and AHP method. Then, the risk level and risk importance of coal and gas outburst risk assessment index are quantitatively described by using fuzzy semantics with five-level classification standards. Finally, the confidence interval of the comprehensive risk value of the coal mines to be evaluated in the research area is established. The research results show that after 20,000 simulation experiments with the coupling model, the calculation results have converged, and the confidence interval value of the system comprehensive risk simulation value of each coal mine is 95%, which can provide relevant decision support for the prevention and control planning of coal and gas outburst.
},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Assessment Method of Coal and Gas Outburst: From the Perspective of TFN-MCS Theory

	

AU  - Zhie Wang
AU  - Jingde Xu
AU  - Jun Ma
Y1  - 2023/10/28
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 107
EP  - 117
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20230805.13
AB  - The prediction of coal and gas outburst risk can effectively prevent underground coal mine accidents. Due to the overlapping, coupling and complexity of coal and gas outburst in the development process, coal and gas outburst is generally Gaussian distribution or nearly Gaussian distribution, especially when the sample data in the research area is not accurate or the information is insufficient, the traditional evaluation model and method have certain limitations. To further improve the scientific and accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst risk level, a coupling model of coal and gas outburst risk assessment is established based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (MCS) and triangular fuzzy number (TFN) theory. Firstly, the index weight measurement value is determined by using expert opinions and AHP method. Then, the risk level and risk importance of coal and gas outburst risk assessment index are quantitatively described by using fuzzy semantics with five-level classification standards. Finally, the confidence interval of the comprehensive risk value of the coal mines to be evaluated in the research area is established. The research results show that after 20,000 simulation experiments with the coupling model, the calculation results have converged, and the confidence interval value of the system comprehensive risk simulation value of each coal mine is 95%, which can provide relevant decision support for the prevention and control planning of coal and gas outburst.

VL  - 8
IS  - 5
ER  -

Copy | Download