Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 6, Issue 4)

Received: 21 June 2021 Accepted: 5 July 2021 Published: 7 August 2021

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Abstract

The agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of the Moroccan’s economy, employing 38% of the active working population and contributing to 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Moroccan agriculture is subject to multiple constraints, including volatility due to climatic conditions which continue to condition the economic performance of the country as a whole, despite the decrease in the share of agriculture in the sectoral composition. The main objective of this study is to econometrically explore the causality nexus between agriculture and GDP in Morocco, especially since the sector has benefited from new development strategies. Using Moroccan time series over the period 1980 to 2017, the paper employed the Granger causality based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) in a dynamic multivariate framework, using five macroeconomic variables: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply, and trade openness. The empirical results from the analysis detect the presence of bidirectional Granger causality between agriculture and GDP, implying a feedback relationship, and some unidirectional causal relationships involving the other macroeconomic variables used in the VAR model. The findings have important policy implications for the government to establish effective agricultural strategies, in particular with the inauguration of the new agricultural strategy «Green Generation» in 2020.

Published in	International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 6, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
Page(s)	198-207
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Agriculture, GDP, VAR, Granger Causality

References

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APA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. (2021). Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(4), 198-207. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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ACS Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2021, 6(4), 198-207. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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AMA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. Int J Agric Econ. 2021;6(4):198-207. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17,
  author = {Ouahiba Elalaoui and Aziz Fadlaoui and Nassreddine Maatala and Abdelouafi Ibrahimy},
  title = {Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {4},
  pages = {198-207},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20210604.17},
  abstract = {The agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of the Moroccan’s economy, employing 38% of the active working population and contributing to 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Moroccan agriculture is subject to multiple constraints, including volatility due to climatic conditions which continue to condition the economic performance of the country as a whole, despite the decrease in the share of agriculture in the sectoral composition. The main objective of this study is to econometrically explore the causality nexus between agriculture and GDP in Morocco, especially since the sector has benefited from new development strategies. Using Moroccan time series over the period 1980 to 2017, the paper employed the Granger causality based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) in a dynamic multivariate framework, using five macroeconomic variables: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply, and trade openness. The empirical results from the analysis detect the presence of bidirectional Granger causality between agriculture and GDP, implying a feedback relationship, and some unidirectional causal relationships involving the other macroeconomic variables used in the VAR model. The findings have important policy implications for the government to establish effective agricultural strategies, in particular with the inauguration of the new agricultural strategy «Green Generation» in 2020.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach
AU  - Ouahiba Elalaoui
AU  - Aziz Fadlaoui
AU  - Nassreddine Maatala
AU  - Abdelouafi Ibrahimy
Y1  - 2021/08/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 198
EP  - 207
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
AB  - The agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of the Moroccan’s economy, employing 38% of the active working population and contributing to 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Moroccan agriculture is subject to multiple constraints, including volatility due to climatic conditions which continue to condition the economic performance of the country as a whole, despite the decrease in the share of agriculture in the sectoral composition. The main objective of this study is to econometrically explore the causality nexus between agriculture and GDP in Morocco, especially since the sector has benefited from new development strategies. Using Moroccan time series over the period 1980 to 2017, the paper employed the Granger causality based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) in a dynamic multivariate framework, using five macroeconomic variables: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply, and trade openness. The empirical results from the analysis detect the presence of bidirectional Granger causality between agriculture and GDP, implying a feedback relationship, and some unidirectional causal relationships involving the other macroeconomic variables used in the VAR model. The findings have important policy implications for the government to establish effective agricultural strategies, in particular with the inauguration of the new agricultural strategy «Green Generation» in 2020.
VL  - 6
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Ouahiba Elalaoui

Department of Human Sciences, Hassan II Institute of Agronomy & Veterinary Medicine, Rabat, Morocco
Aziz Fadlaoui

Rural Economics and Sociology Department, National Institute of Agricultural Research, Meknes, Morocco
Nassreddine Maatala

Department of Human Sciences, Hassan II Institute of Agronomy & Veterinary Medicine, Rabat, Morocco
Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

Department of Rural Economy, National School of Agriculture, Meknes, Morocco

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APA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. (2021). Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(4), 198-207. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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ACS Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2021, 6(4), 198-207. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

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AMA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach. Int J Agric Econ. 2021;6(4):198-207. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17,
  author = {Ouahiba Elalaoui and Aziz Fadlaoui and Nassreddine Maatala and Abdelouafi Ibrahimy},
  title = {Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {4},
  pages = {198-207},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20210604.17},
  abstract = {The agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of the Moroccan’s economy, employing 38% of the active working population and contributing to 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Moroccan agriculture is subject to multiple constraints, including volatility due to climatic conditions which continue to condition the economic performance of the country as a whole, despite the decrease in the share of agriculture in the sectoral composition. The main objective of this study is to econometrically explore the causality nexus between agriculture and GDP in Morocco, especially since the sector has benefited from new development strategies. Using Moroccan time series over the period 1980 to 2017, the paper employed the Granger causality based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) in a dynamic multivariate framework, using five macroeconomic variables: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply, and trade openness. The empirical results from the analysis detect the presence of bidirectional Granger causality between agriculture and GDP, implying a feedback relationship, and some unidirectional causal relationships involving the other macroeconomic variables used in the VAR model. The findings have important policy implications for the government to establish effective agricultural strategies, in particular with the inauguration of the new agricultural strategy «Green Generation» in 2020.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Agriculture and GDP Causality Nexus in Morocco: Empirical Evidence from a VAR Approach
AU  - Ouahiba Elalaoui
AU  - Aziz Fadlaoui
AU  - Nassreddine Maatala
AU  - Abdelouafi Ibrahimy
Y1  - 2021/08/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 198
EP  - 207
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210604.17
AB  - The agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of the Moroccan’s economy, employing 38% of the active working population and contributing to 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Moroccan agriculture is subject to multiple constraints, including volatility due to climatic conditions which continue to condition the economic performance of the country as a whole, despite the decrease in the share of agriculture in the sectoral composition. The main objective of this study is to econometrically explore the causality nexus between agriculture and GDP in Morocco, especially since the sector has benefited from new development strategies. Using Moroccan time series over the period 1980 to 2017, the paper employed the Granger causality based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) in a dynamic multivariate framework, using five macroeconomic variables: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply, and trade openness. The empirical results from the analysis detect the presence of bidirectional Granger causality between agriculture and GDP, implying a feedback relationship, and some unidirectional causal relationships involving the other macroeconomic variables used in the VAR model. The findings have important policy implications for the government to establish effective agricultural strategies, in particular with the inauguration of the new agricultural strategy «Green Generation» in 2020.
VL  - 6
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download