Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model

Wang Ping; Wang Jing

doi:doi:10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

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Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model

Wang Ping, Wang Jing

Published in Humanities and Social Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 1)

Received: 16 January 2018 Accepted: 31 January 2018 Published: 22 March 2018

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Abstract

With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.

Published in	Humanities and Social Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
Page(s)	12-18
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Population Structure, Population Policy, Leslie Model, Elderly Population Coefficient

References

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[2]	Meng Lingguo, Li Chaoling, Hu Guang. Prediction of China's Population Structure Based on PDE Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24 (02): 132-141.
[3]	Jiang Yu, Quan Mengzhen. China's population structure, pension insurance and household consumption [J]. Economic Survey, 2018 (01): 1-12 [2017-12-27]. https: //doi.org/10.15931 /j.cnki.1006-1096.20171129.018.
[4]	Han Xiaoqing. Leslie model of China's future population strategy simulation [D]. Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2012.
[5]	Song Jian, Ding Jun, Wang Fuyuan. Effects of the Comprehensive Two-child Policy on Spatial Structure of Population and Regional Population in China [J]. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35 (11): 1305-1316.
[6]	Ren Qiang, Huang Jiting. Prediction and Analysis of China's Population Development Based on Leslie Model [J]. Journal of Mathematics, 2010, 40 (23): 101-106.
[7]	Meng Lingguo. A Review on Leslie Model [D]. Northeast Normal University, 2009.
[8]	Zhang Yanhua, Xu Yikai, Li Zhuoming. Study on the Impacts of "All-Round Two-Tire" Policy Based on Error Correction Model and Leslie Model [J]. Human Resource Management, 2017 (06): 304-307.
[9]	Yu Tingting, Song Yuxiang, Hou Feilong, Li Qiuyu. Study on the Population Structure Factors of Economic Growth in Northeast China [J]. Economic Geography: 1-9 [2017-12-27]. http: //kns.cnki.net/kcms /detail/43.1126. K.20161019.0838.004.html.
[10]	Shi Benye. China's demographic changes in the impact of economic restructuring [J]. Journal of Demography, 2016, 38 (04): 17-24.
[11]	Liu Ye, Wu Sheng, Wu Xingjiao, Zhou Haihe, Liu Yingli, Zhang Jing. Analysis of the Influence of the Comprehensive Two-child Policy on the Population Structure Based on Leslie Model [J], Software, 2017, 38 (08): 145-150.
[12]	Guo Shenshen. Study on the Influence of Population Structure Change in Henan Province on Economic Development [D]. Henan University, 2015.
[13]	Lin Hongkang, Xie Xiangdong. Qualitative Analysis of a Class of Leslie Models [J]. Mathematical Research, 1997 (03): 308-311.
[14]	Wang Haoming. Empirical Study on the Adjustment of China's Population Total Fertility, Demographic Dividend and Reproductive Policy [D]. Liaoning University, 2016.
[15]	Wang Shenbo, Shen Ronghao. The Application of Improved Leslie Model in Larger Cities with Floating Population-A Case Study of Shenzhen [J]. Management Observation, 2013 (23): 89-90 (in Chinese).

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Wang Ping, Wang Jing. (2018). Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(1), 12-18. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

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ACS Style

Wang Ping; Wang Jing. Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanit. Soc. Sci. 2018, 6(1), 12-18. doi: 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

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AMA Style

Wang Ping, Wang Jing. Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanit Soc Sci. 2018;6(1):12-18. doi: 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

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@article{10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13,
  author = {Wang Ping and Wang Jing},
  title = {Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model},
  journal = {Humanities and Social Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {1},
  pages = {12-18},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hss.20180601.13},
  abstract = {With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model
AU  - Wang Ping
AU  - Wang Jing
Y1  - 2018/03/22
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
T2  - Humanities and Social Sciences
JF  - Humanities and Social Sciences
JO  - Humanities and Social Sciences
SP  - 12
EP  - 18
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8184
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
AB  - With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Wang Ping

School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China
Wang Jing

School of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China

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APA Style

Wang Ping, Wang Jing. (2018). Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(1), 12-18. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Wang Ping; Wang Jing. Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanit. Soc. Sci. 2018, 6(1), 12-18. doi: 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

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AMA Style

Wang Ping, Wang Jing. Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model. Humanit Soc Sci. 2018;6(1):12-18. doi: 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13,
  author = {Wang Ping and Wang Jing},
  title = {Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model},
  journal = {Humanities and Social Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {1},
  pages = {12-18},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hss.20180601.13},
  abstract = {With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Study on Population Structure Change and Policy Development Based on Leslie Model
AU  - Wang Ping
AU  - Wang Jing
Y1  - 2018/03/22
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
T2  - Humanities and Social Sciences
JF  - Humanities and Social Sciences
JO  - Humanities and Social Sciences
SP  - 12
EP  - 18
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8184
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hss.20180601.13
AB  - With the overall-two-child policy been fully opened, as the important influence factor of economic development and social life, population structure is more worthy of study. In order to get the more intuitive result of the policy for relief the China's ageing population, this paper uses the Leslie model to predict the future population and the age structure change. Based on census data of Henan province, this paper divided the people's fertility wishes into high, medium and low, proposed four kinds of fertility strategies, and qualitative analysis the total fertility rate and birth population sex ratio of three different fertility wishes. Firstly, this paper predicts the total population size and the age structure under different fertility strategies during 2011-2050. Secondly, based on the total population, the elderly population coefficient and the total population dependency ratio, this paper analyzed the optimal fertility strategy under different fertility wishes. Finally, the conclusion is as follows, when the fertility wishes is low, medium and high respectively, the fertility strategies should be chosen as IV, III and II respectively, that is to say, in the early period, a woman had less than two children and later each woman had 2.1 children, which fully accords with the concept of population sustainable development.
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download