Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan

Kun-Sung Liu; Hsiang-Chi Huang

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan

Kun-Sung Liu, Hsiang-Chi Huang

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 2)

Received: 12 April 2021 Accepted: 24 April 2021 Published: 8 May 2021

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
Page(s)	49-63
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Hsincheng Fault, Potential Human Fatality, Ground Motion, Seismic Hazard Potential, Taoyuan, Hsinchu

References

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APA Style

Kun-Sung Liu, Hsiang-Chi Huang. (2021). Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sciences, 10(2), 49-63. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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ACS Style

Kun-Sung Liu; Hsiang-Chi Huang. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2021, 10(2), 49-63. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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AMA Style

Kun-Sung Liu, Hsiang-Chi Huang. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2021;10(2):49-63. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12,
  author = {Kun-Sung Liu and Hsiang-Chi Huang},
  title = {Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {2},
  pages = {49-63},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20211002.12},
  abstract = {The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan
AU  - Kun-Sung Liu
AU  - Hsiang-Chi Huang
Y1  - 2021/05/08
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 49
EP  - 63
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
AB  - The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Kun-Sung Liu

Department of Civil Engineering & Hazard Mitigation Research Center, Kao Yuan University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC
Hsiang-Chi Huang

Department of Public Administration, Tam Kang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan, ROC

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APA Style

Kun-Sung Liu, Hsiang-Chi Huang. (2021). Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sciences, 10(2), 49-63. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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ACS Style

Kun-Sung Liu; Hsiang-Chi Huang. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2021, 10(2), 49-63. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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AMA Style

Kun-Sung Liu, Hsiang-Chi Huang. Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2021;10(2):49-63. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12,
  author = {Kun-Sung Liu and Hsiang-Chi Huang},
  title = {Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {2},
  pages = {49-63},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20211002.12},
  abstract = {The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan
AU  - Kun-Sung Liu
AU  - Hsiang-Chi Huang
Y1  - 2021/05/08
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 49
EP  - 63
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20211002.12
AB  - The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
ER  -

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