Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate

Habibullo Abdussamatov

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate

Habibullo Abdussamatov

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 9, Issue 4)

Received: 26 April 2020 Accepted: 20 June 2020 Published: 30 July 2020

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Abstract

The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 9, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
Page(s)	117-125
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate, Energy Balance, Solar Irradiance, Cooling, Grand Solar Minimum, Thermal Energy, Feedback Effects, Little Ice Age, Climate Sensitivity

References

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Habibullo Abdussamatov. (2020). Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sciences, 9(4), 117-125. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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Habibullo Abdussamatov. Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sci. 2020, 9(4), 117-125. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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AMA Style

Habibullo Abdussamatov. Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sci. 2020;9(4):117-125. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11,
  author = {Habibullo Abdussamatov},
  title = {Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {9},
  number = {4},
  pages = {117-125},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20200904.11},
  abstract = {The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate
AU  - Habibullo Abdussamatov
Y1  - 2020/07/30
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 117
EP  - 125
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
AB  - The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.
VL  - 9
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Habibullo Abdussamatov

Pulkovo Observatory of the RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia

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Habibullo Abdussamatov. (2020). Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sciences, 9(4), 117-125. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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ACS Style

Habibullo Abdussamatov. Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sci. 2020, 9(4), 117-125. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

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AMA Style

Habibullo Abdussamatov. Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate. Earth Sci. 2020;9(4):117-125. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11,
  author = {Habibullo Abdussamatov},
  title = {Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {9},
  number = {4},
  pages = {117-125},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20200904.11},
  abstract = {The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate
AU  - Habibullo Abdussamatov
Y1  - 2020/07/30
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 117
EP  - 125
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200904.11
AB  - The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.
VL  - 9
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download