Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in <i>Chiro</i> and <i>Hurso</i> Stations of Eastern Ethiopia

Abeba Tesfay; Shoeb Quraishi

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia

Abeba Tesfay, Shoeb Quraishi

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 5)

Received: 5 June 2017 Accepted: 26 June 2017 Published: 18 September 2017

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Abstract

Today environmental issue becomes the biggest concern of humankind because of scientific evidence about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the changing climate of the Earth. This study was conducted in eastern Ethiopia specifically at Chiro and Hurso stations. The study assessed quantitatively the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships under changing climate condition and compare with the existing rainfall- Intensity Duration- Frequency (IDF) relationships. Rainfall intensity duration and frequency curves were developed using historical rainfall time series data under the assumption that climate is stationary. This assumption is not valid under changing climatic conditions that may shifts in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall. Such shifts in extreme rainfall at the local level demand new regulations for any intervention management as well as changes in design practices. In order to estimate the level of climate change impact on the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships, these changes of the climate variables were applied to Hyetos Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation model to simulate future IDF relationships. From the results can see graphical presentation of IDF curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. The comparison results indicate that, difference between rainfall intensities (percentage) of climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between 1.58% and 10.92% for 2050s, ranges between 0.07% and 20.22% and for 2080s, ranges between 0.71% and 55.93% in Chiro station, respectively. Similarly, in the case of Hurso station, the difference between climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between1.10% and 27.83% for 2050s ranges between 110.5% and 40.21% and for 2080s that ranges between 19.44% and 67.75%, respectively. Therefore, the outputs of the study indicates that the rainfall magnitude will be different in the future and thereby the decrease and increase in rainfall intensity and magnitude may have major implications on ways in which current and future intervention is designed, operated, and maintained. Therefore, design standards and guidelines currently employed in the study area should be revised with the confirmation of the impacts of climate change.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
Page(s)	97-105
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves, Ethiopia

References

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[2]	IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
[3]	Mc Cuen, R. H., P. A. Johnson and R. M. Ragan, 1996. Highway Hydrology. Hydraulic Design Series NO. 2. Federal Highway Administration Office of Technology Applications. Washington, D. C.
[4]	Suresh, R., 2005. Watershed hydrology: Principles of Hydrology. Standard Publishers Distributors. Delhi.
[5]	EXACT (Executive Action Team). 2006. Middle East Water Data Banks Project. Application of Methods for Analysis of Rainfall Intensity in Areas of Israeli, Jordanian, and Palestinian Interest. Water resources of Palestinian, Jordanian, and Israeli Interest.
[6]	Raiford, J. P., N. M. Aziz, A. A. Khan, and D. N. Powell, 2007. Rainfall Depth-Duration Frequency Relationships for South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia. American Journal of Environmental Sciences.
[7]	NMSA (National Meteorological Service Agency), 1996.Assessment of Drought in Ethiopia. No. 2. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[8]	Nhat, M. L.; Tachikawa, Y.; and Takara, K. 2006. Derivation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for Short.
[9]	Duration Rainfall from Daily Data. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan.
[10]	Tesfaye Morka, 2011. Development of Rainfall Intensity- Duration -Frequency Curves for some selected stations under changing climate, Eastern Hararghe zone, Oromia. MSc. Thesis. Haramaya University. Haramaya, Ethiopia.
[11]	Prodanovic, P. and S. P. Simonovic, 2009. Revision of Intensity-Duration-Frequency under Changing Climatic Conditions. 5^th International Symposium on Flood Defense: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
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[13]	Chowdhury, J. U.; Stedinger, J. R.; and LU, L. H. 1991. Goodness-of-fit Test for Regional GEV Flood Distribution. Water Resource Research 27, 1765 – 1776.
[14]	Vogel, R. M. and D. E. Mc Martin, 1991. Probability plot Goodness-of-fit and Skewness Estimation Procedures for the Pearson Type 3 Distribution. Water Resource Research 27, 3149- 3158.
[15]	Ahmad, M. I., C. D. Sinclair and B. D. Spurr, 1988. Assessment of Flood Frequency Models Using Empirical Distribution Function. Journal of Water Resource 24, 1323-1328.
[16]	Hosking, J. R. M. 1986. The Theory of Probability Weighted Moments. Research Report RC12210. IBM Research Division. New York. Bhakar, S. R., A. K. Bansal, N. Chhajed and R. C. Purohit, 2006. Frequency Analysis of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall at Banswara, Rajasthan, India. Department of Soil and Water Engineering, Udaipur, Rajasthan, India. Vol. 1, No. 3.
[17]	Feleke Gerbi, 2006. Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for the SNNPR. MSc. Thesis. Arbaminch University, Arbaminch, Ethiopia.
[18]	Shimelis Berhanu, 2008. Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis for Parts of Eastern Oromia. MSc. Thesis. Haramaya University. Haramaya, Ethiopia.
[19]	Chali Edosa, 2008. Regional Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis for Oromia Region. MSc. Thesis. Arba Minch University. Arb Minch, Ethiopia.
[20]	Prodanovic, P. and S. P. Simonovic, 2008.Intensity-Duration-Frequency under Changing Climatic Conditions. 4^th International Symposium on Flood Defense: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
[21]	Cherkos Tefera, 2002. Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for Northern half of Ethiopia. MSc. Thesis. Addis Ababa University.

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APA Style

Abeba Tesfay, Shoeb Quraishi. (2017). Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sciences, 6(5), 97-105. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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ACS Style

Abeba Tesfay; Shoeb Quraishi. Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sci. 2017, 6(5), 97-105. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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AMA Style

Abeba Tesfay, Shoeb Quraishi. Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sci. 2017;6(5):97-105. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16,
  author = {Abeba Tesfay and Shoeb Quraishi},
  title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {97-105},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20170605.16},
  abstract = {Today environmental issue becomes the biggest concern of humankind because of scientific evidence about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the changing climate of the Earth. This study was conducted in eastern Ethiopia specifically at Chiro and Hurso stations. The study assessed quantitatively the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships under changing climate condition and compare with the existing rainfall- Intensity Duration- Frequency (IDF) relationships. Rainfall intensity duration and frequency curves were developed using historical rainfall time series data under the assumption that climate is stationary. This assumption is not valid under changing climatic conditions that may shifts in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall. Such shifts in extreme rainfall at the local level demand new regulations for any intervention management as well as changes in design practices. In order to estimate the level of climate change impact on the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships, these changes of the climate variables were applied to Hyetos Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation model to simulate future IDF relationships. From the results can see graphical presentation of IDF curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. The comparison results indicate that, difference between rainfall intensities (percentage) of climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between 1.58% and 10.92% for 2050s, ranges between 0.07% and 20.22% and for 2080s, ranges between 0.71% and 55.93% in Chiro station, respectively. Similarly, in the case of Hurso station, the difference between climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between1.10% and 27.83% for 2050s ranges between 110.5% and 40.21% and for 2080s that ranges between 19.44% and 67.75%, respectively. Therefore, the outputs of the study indicates that the rainfall magnitude will be different in the future and thereby the decrease and increase in rainfall intensity and magnitude may have major implications on ways in which current and future intervention is designed, operated, and maintained. Therefore, design standards and guidelines currently employed in the study area should be revised with the confirmation of the impacts of climate change.},
 year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia
AU  - Abeba Tesfay
AU  - Shoeb Quraishi
Y1  - 2017/09/18
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 97
EP  - 105
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
AB  - Today environmental issue becomes the biggest concern of humankind because of scientific evidence about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the changing climate of the Earth. This study was conducted in eastern Ethiopia specifically at Chiro and Hurso stations. The study assessed quantitatively the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships under changing climate condition and compare with the existing rainfall- Intensity Duration- Frequency (IDF) relationships. Rainfall intensity duration and frequency curves were developed using historical rainfall time series data under the assumption that climate is stationary. This assumption is not valid under changing climatic conditions that may shifts in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall. Such shifts in extreme rainfall at the local level demand new regulations for any intervention management as well as changes in design practices. In order to estimate the level of climate change impact on the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships, these changes of the climate variables were applied to Hyetos Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation model to simulate future IDF relationships. From the results can see graphical presentation of IDF curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. The comparison results indicate that, difference between rainfall intensities (percentage) of climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between 1.58% and 10.92% for 2050s, ranges between 0.07% and 20.22% and for 2080s, ranges between 0.71% and 55.93% in Chiro station, respectively. Similarly, in the case of Hurso station, the difference between climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between1.10% and 27.83% for 2050s ranges between 110.5% and 40.21% and for 2080s that ranges between 19.44% and 67.75%, respectively. Therefore, the outputs of the study indicates that the rainfall magnitude will be different in the future and thereby the decrease and increase in rainfall intensity and magnitude may have major implications on ways in which current and future intervention is designed, operated, and maintained. Therefore, design standards and guidelines currently employed in the study area should be revised with the confirmation of the impacts of climate change.
VL  - 6
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Abeba Tesfay

Department of Natural Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia
Shoeb Quraishi

Department of Natural Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Abeba Tesfay, Shoeb Quraishi. (2017). Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sciences, 6(5), 97-105. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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ACS Style

Abeba Tesfay; Shoeb Quraishi. Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sci. 2017, 6(5), 97-105. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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AMA Style

Abeba Tesfay, Shoeb Quraishi. Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia. Earth Sci. 2017;6(5):97-105. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16,
  author = {Abeba Tesfay and Shoeb Quraishi},
  title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {97-105},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20170605.16},
  abstract = {Today environmental issue becomes the biggest concern of humankind because of scientific evidence about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the changing climate of the Earth. This study was conducted in eastern Ethiopia specifically at Chiro and Hurso stations. The study assessed quantitatively the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships under changing climate condition and compare with the existing rainfall- Intensity Duration- Frequency (IDF) relationships. Rainfall intensity duration and frequency curves were developed using historical rainfall time series data under the assumption that climate is stationary. This assumption is not valid under changing climatic conditions that may shifts in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall. Such shifts in extreme rainfall at the local level demand new regulations for any intervention management as well as changes in design practices. In order to estimate the level of climate change impact on the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships, these changes of the climate variables were applied to Hyetos Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation model to simulate future IDF relationships. From the results can see graphical presentation of IDF curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. The comparison results indicate that, difference between rainfall intensities (percentage) of climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between 1.58% and 10.92% for 2050s, ranges between 0.07% and 20.22% and for 2080s, ranges between 0.71% and 55.93% in Chiro station, respectively. Similarly, in the case of Hurso station, the difference between climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between1.10% and 27.83% for 2050s ranges between 110.5% and 40.21% and for 2080s that ranges between 19.44% and 67.75%, respectively. Therefore, the outputs of the study indicates that the rainfall magnitude will be different in the future and thereby the decrease and increase in rainfall intensity and magnitude may have major implications on ways in which current and future intervention is designed, operated, and maintained. Therefore, design standards and guidelines currently employed in the study area should be revised with the confirmation of the impacts of climate change.},
 year = {2017}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Curves in Chiro and Hurso Stations of Eastern Ethiopia
AU  - Abeba Tesfay
AU  - Shoeb Quraishi
Y1  - 2017/09/18
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 97
EP  - 105
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170605.16
AB  - Today environmental issue becomes the biggest concern of humankind because of scientific evidence about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the changing climate of the Earth. This study was conducted in eastern Ethiopia specifically at Chiro and Hurso stations. The study assessed quantitatively the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships under changing climate condition and compare with the existing rainfall- Intensity Duration- Frequency (IDF) relationships. Rainfall intensity duration and frequency curves were developed using historical rainfall time series data under the assumption that climate is stationary. This assumption is not valid under changing climatic conditions that may shifts in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall. Such shifts in extreme rainfall at the local level demand new regulations for any intervention management as well as changes in design practices. In order to estimate the level of climate change impact on the rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships, these changes of the climate variables were applied to Hyetos Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation model to simulate future IDF relationships. From the results can see graphical presentation of IDF curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. The comparison results indicate that, difference between rainfall intensities (percentage) of climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between 1.58% and 10.92% for 2050s, ranges between 0.07% and 20.22% and for 2080s, ranges between 0.71% and 55.93% in Chiro station, respectively. Similarly, in the case of Hurso station, the difference between climate change scenario and historic rainfall for 2020s ranges between1.10% and 27.83% for 2050s ranges between 110.5% and 40.21% and for 2080s that ranges between 19.44% and 67.75%, respectively. Therefore, the outputs of the study indicates that the rainfall magnitude will be different in the future and thereby the decrease and increase in rainfall intensity and magnitude may have major implications on ways in which current and future intervention is designed, operated, and maintained. Therefore, design standards and guidelines currently employed in the study area should be revised with the confirmation of the impacts of climate change.
VL  - 6
IS  - 5
ER  -

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