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The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025

Received: 9 November 2013     Published: 30 November 2013
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Abstract

One of the objectives of the National Energy Policy (KEN) of Indonesiawhich is listed in Perpres (Presidential Regulation) number 5/2006 is the realization ofan optimal energy mix in 2025 by lowering oil consumption to 20% and increased utilization of coal to greater than 33%. KEN also mandates that more than 2% of national energy needs is derived from coal liquefaction process. This research aim is to analyze atthe economic impact and linkages among sectors using Indonesian 2005 Input-Output Table which will be projected to 2025 by entering low-rank coal synthetic oil (CSO) sector as a new classification. Econometric models (regression analysis) and linear programming are applied in this research. The result of economic calculation of investation in CSO plants indicates that on the coal price assumption of US$60/ton, synthetic coal oil price of US$111/bbl, and the interest rate (i) 5%, in general will give the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is less than 10%. Analysis of backward linkages shows that the CSO sector will have a potential increasing a new output for the economy higher than the other energy sectors, but lower rate of forward linkage (downstream). Meanwhile, the multiplier effect indicates that the development of CSO plant is capable of moving national economy sectors equivalent to the petroleum refining sector and other energy provider sectors.The lower surplus multiplier shows that the investment in the CSO sector will be attractive if the government gives incentives on the enterprise, things such as regulation and investing financial support, tax incentives/tax holiday, price subsidies, and the coal prices scheme arrangements.

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 2, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16
Page(s) 149-157
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2013. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Energy Policy, Coal Liquefaction, Linkages, Multiplier, Linear Programming

References
[1] Anonymous (a), Gasification World Data Base. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007.
[2] Anonymous (b), Clean Coal Technology Programs: Program Update. U.S. Department of Energy, Assistance Secretary for Fossil Energy, Washington, 2008.
[3] Anonymous (c), Laporan Gasifikasi Batubara Indonesia Volume I, II, III 1999-2000. Departemen Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, 2000.
[4] Anonymous (d), Coal Technology. Proceedings of Seminar on Coal Technology and the Indonesian Needs, Jakarta, October 19-26. Republic of Indonesia-Federal Republic of Germany, 1980.
[5] Anonymous (e), Feasibility Study on Direct Liquefaction of Banko Coal in Indonesia. BPPT and NEDO, Kobe Steel Ltd, 2002.
[6] Anonymous (f), Coastal Case-Coal Liquefaction. BPPT, NEDO, Kobelco, 2003.
[7] Anonymous (g), Bahan Menteri ESDM Pada Rapat Kerja Pemerintah dan Peran BUMN Dalam Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Nasional. Istana Bogor, 21 Februari, 2011.
[8] Anonymous (h), 2011. Low-rank Coal Upgrading Technology Development, Final Report. Research and Development Center for Mineral and Coal Technology (tekMIRA) and Japan Coal Energy Center (JCOAL)/Kobe Steel, Ltd, 2011.
[9] BadanPusatStatistik, Tabel Input-Output Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2005.
[10] BP-PEN, Blueprint Pengelolaan Energi Nasional 2006-2025, (BPEN), Jakarta, 2010.
[11] V. Bulmer, and Thomas, I-O Analysis in Developing Countries, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London, 1982.
[12] B. Daulay, Techno-Economic Low Rank Coal Projects in Indonesia, PuslitbangTekmira,2008.
[13] Direktorat Jenderal Mineral and Batubara, Statistik Batubara, Jakarta, 2012.
[14] Direktorat Jenderal Minyak dan Gas, Statistik Minyak Bumi, Jakarta, 2012.
[15] M. Huda, and S. Munir, Persiapan Semikomersial Pencairan Batubara, Puslitbang Tekmira, Bandung, 2008.
[16] Menko Perekonomian, Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3-EI),Tahun2011-2025, 2011.
[17] W.H. Miernyk,The Elements of Input-Output Analysis, Random House, New York, 1965.
[18] W.H. Miernyk, Regional Analysis and Regional Policy, Oelgeschlager, Gunn &Hain, Publishers, Inc, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1982.
[19] S. Nazara, Analisis Input-Output, Lembaga Penelitian Fakultas Ekonomi, UI, 2005.
[20] U.W. Soelistijo, "Beberapa Indikator Nilai Tambah Ekonomi Indonesia: Sektor Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Several Indicators of the Indonesia Economy Added Value : Energy and Mineral Resource Sector) ," JurnalTeknologi Mineral dan Batubara, vol. 9,No.1, Januari 2013.
[21] U.W. Soelistijo, and R. Damayanti, Waste Gases and Particulates Resulted from Briquette Combustion. Air Quality VIII, An International Conference on Carbon Management, Mercury, Trace Substances, SOx, NOx, and Particulate Matter, Arlington, VA, USA, October 24-27, 2011.
[22] U.W. Soelistijo, R. Saepudin, T. Suseno, and S.Palamba, Economic evaluation of the NEDO (Japan) – BPPT (Indonesia) feasibility study on the Indonesia Banko coal liquefaction, Proceedings, the Coal Technology Association, "The 28th International Technical Conference on Coal Utilization & Fuel Systems", Sheraton Sand Key Hotel, Clearwater,Flrorida, USA, March 10-13,2003.
[23] S.Wasaka, Coal Liquefaction Development in NEDO, IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board workshop, 2 November 2006, IEA Headquarters, Paris, 2006.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Ukar Wijaya Soelistijo, Aryo Prawoto Wibowo, Makmun Abdullah. (2013). The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025. Earth Sciences, 2(6), 149-157. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16

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    ACS Style

    Ukar Wijaya Soelistijo; Aryo Prawoto Wibowo; Makmun Abdullah. The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025. Earth Sci. 2013, 2(6), 149-157. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16

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    AMA Style

    Ukar Wijaya Soelistijo, Aryo Prawoto Wibowo, Makmun Abdullah. The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025. Earth Sci. 2013;2(6):149-157. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16

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  • @article{10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16,
      author = {Ukar Wijaya Soelistijo and Aryo Prawoto Wibowo and Makmun Abdullah},
      title = {The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025},
      journal = {Earth Sciences},
      volume = {2},
      number = {6},
      pages = {149-157},
      doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20130206.16},
      abstract = {One of the objectives of the National Energy Policy (KEN) of Indonesiawhich is listed in Perpres (Presidential Regulation) number 5/2006 is the realization ofan optimal energy mix in 2025 by lowering oil consumption to 20% and increased utilization of coal to greater than 33%. KEN also mandates that more than 2% of national energy needs is derived from coal liquefaction process. This research aim is to analyze atthe economic impact and linkages among sectors using Indonesian 2005 Input-Output Table which will be projected to 2025 by entering low-rank coal synthetic oil (CSO) sector as a new classification. Econometric models (regression analysis) and linear programming are applied in this research. The result of economic calculation of investation in CSO plants indicates that on the coal price assumption of US$60/ton, synthetic coal oil price of US$111/bbl, and the interest rate (i) 5%, in general will give the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is less than 10%. Analysis of backward linkages shows that the CSO sector will have a potential increasing a new output for the economy higher than the other energy sectors, but lower rate of forward linkage (downstream). Meanwhile, the multiplier effect indicates that the development of CSO plant is capable of moving national economy sectors equivalent to the petroleum refining sector and other energy provider sectors.The lower surplus multiplier shows that the investment in the CSO sector will be attractive if the government gives incentives on the enterprise, things such as regulation and investing financial support, tax incentives/tax holiday, price subsidies, and the coal  prices scheme arrangements.},
     year = {2013}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - The Potential Share of Coal Liquefaction in the Indonesian Economy in 2025
    AU  - Ukar Wijaya Soelistijo
    AU  - Aryo Prawoto Wibowo
    AU  - Makmun Abdullah
    Y1  - 2013/11/30
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    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16
    DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16
    T2  - Earth Sciences
    JF  - Earth Sciences
    JO  - Earth Sciences
    SP  - 149
    EP  - 157
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-5982
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20130206.16
    AB  - One of the objectives of the National Energy Policy (KEN) of Indonesiawhich is listed in Perpres (Presidential Regulation) number 5/2006 is the realization ofan optimal energy mix in 2025 by lowering oil consumption to 20% and increased utilization of coal to greater than 33%. KEN also mandates that more than 2% of national energy needs is derived from coal liquefaction process. This research aim is to analyze atthe economic impact and linkages among sectors using Indonesian 2005 Input-Output Table which will be projected to 2025 by entering low-rank coal synthetic oil (CSO) sector as a new classification. Econometric models (regression analysis) and linear programming are applied in this research. The result of economic calculation of investation in CSO plants indicates that on the coal price assumption of US$60/ton, synthetic coal oil price of US$111/bbl, and the interest rate (i) 5%, in general will give the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is less than 10%. Analysis of backward linkages shows that the CSO sector will have a potential increasing a new output for the economy higher than the other energy sectors, but lower rate of forward linkage (downstream). Meanwhile, the multiplier effect indicates that the development of CSO plant is capable of moving national economy sectors equivalent to the petroleum refining sector and other energy provider sectors.The lower surplus multiplier shows that the investment in the CSO sector will be attractive if the government gives incentives on the enterprise, things such as regulation and investing financial support, tax incentives/tax holiday, price subsidies, and the coal  prices scheme arrangements.
    VL  - 2
    IS  - 6
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • University of Islam Bandung, Institute of Technology Bandung, Mineral and Coal Technology R&D Center, Bandung Indonesia

  • Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung Indonesia

  • Institute of Technology Bandung, Center for Education and Training Center for Mineral and Coal, Bandung Indonesia

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