Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Mohamed Kamel

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel

Published in American Journal of Civil Engineering (Volume 4, Issue 1)

Received: 12 January 2016 Accepted: 1 February 2016 Published: 29 February 2016

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Abstract

In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.

Published in	American Journal of Civil Engineering (Volume 4, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
Page(s)	24-39
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Risk Management, International Construction, Risk Factors, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Logic Approach, MATLAB Software, Validation Process

References

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APA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel. (2016). Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. American Journal of Civil Engineering, 4(1), 24-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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ACS Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Mohamed Kamel. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. Am. J. Civ. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 24-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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AMA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. Am J Civ Eng. 2016;4(1):24-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13,
  author = {Hesham Abd El Khalek and Remon Fayek Aziz and Hamada Mohamed Kamel},
  title = {Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic},
  journal = {American Journal of Civil Engineering},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {24-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajce.20160401.13},
  abstract = {In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.},
 year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic
AU  - Hesham Abd El Khalek
AU  - Remon Fayek Aziz
AU  - Hamada Mohamed Kamel
Y1  - 2016/02/29
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
T2  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
SP  - 24
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8737
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
AB  - In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.
VL  - 4
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Hesham Abd El Khalek

Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Remon Fayek Aziz

Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Hamada Mohamed Kamel

Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt

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APA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel. (2016). Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. American Journal of Civil Engineering, 4(1), 24-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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ACS Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Mohamed Kamel. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. Am. J. Civ. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 24-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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AMA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic. Am J Civ Eng. 2016;4(1):24-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13,
  author = {Hesham Abd El Khalek and Remon Fayek Aziz and Hamada Mohamed Kamel},
  title = {Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic},
  journal = {American Journal of Civil Engineering},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {24-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajce.20160401.13},
  abstract = {In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.},
 year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic
AU  - Hesham Abd El Khalek
AU  - Remon Fayek Aziz
AU  - Hamada Mohamed Kamel
Y1  - 2016/02/29
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
T2  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
SP  - 24
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8737
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
AB  - In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.
VL  - 4
IS  - 1
ER  -

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