Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Kamel

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel

Published in American Journal of Civil Engineering (Volume 4, Issue 1)

Received: 16 January 2016 Accepted: 30 January 2016 Published: 23 February 2016

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Abstract

Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.

Published in	American Journal of Civil Engineering (Volume 4, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
Page(s)	12-23
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Risk Management, International Construction, Risk Factors, Optimization Model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), FUZZY LOGIC Approach, MATLAB Software, Validation Process

References

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APA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel. (2016). Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. American Journal of Civil Engineering, 4(1), 12-23. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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ACS Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Kamel. Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. Am. J. Civ. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 12-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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AMA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel. Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. Am J Civ Eng. 2016;4(1):12-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12,
  author = {Hesham Abd El Khalek and Remon Fayek Aziz and Hamada Kamel},
  title = {Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP},
  journal = {American Journal of Civil Engineering},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {12-23},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajce.20160401.12},
  abstract = {Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.},
 year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP
AU  - Hesham Abd El Khalek
AU  - Remon Fayek Aziz
AU  - Hamada Kamel
Y1  - 2016/02/23
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
T2  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
SP  - 12
EP  - 23
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8737
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
AB  - Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.
VL  - 4
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Hesham Abd El Khalek

Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Remon Fayek Aziz

Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt
Hamada Kamel

Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt

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APA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel. (2016). Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. American Journal of Civil Engineering, 4(1), 12-23. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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ACS Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek; Remon Fayek Aziz; Hamada Kamel. Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. Am. J. Civ. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 12-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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AMA Style

Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel. Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP. Am J Civ Eng. 2016;4(1):12-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12,
  author = {Hesham Abd El Khalek and Remon Fayek Aziz and Hamada Kamel},
  title = {Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP},
  journal = {American Journal of Civil Engineering},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {12-23},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajce.20160401.12},
  abstract = {Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.},
 year = {2016}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP
AU  - Hesham Abd El Khalek
AU  - Remon Fayek Aziz
AU  - Hamada Kamel
Y1  - 2016/02/23
PY  - 2016
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
T2  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Civil Engineering
SP  - 12
EP  - 23
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8737
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
AB  - Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.
VL  - 4
IS  - 1
ER  -

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