The objective of this study is to model seasonal variations in claim intensities and to evaluate the dependency of covariates on claim rates. The data for this study are obtained from claimants registered during September 2009 to August 2011, both inclusive at the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation in Hawassa. We present a procedure for consistent estimation of the claim frequency for motor vehicles in the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation, Hawassa District. The seasonal variation is modeled with a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a time varying intensity function. Covariates of the policy holders, like gender and age, is corrected for in the average claim rate by Poisson regression in a GLM setting. An approximate maximum likelihood criterion is used when estimating the model parameters. Numerical simulations are carried out applying the numerical software Matlab. These simulations show the reliability of the estimator. The seasonal parameters are found to be ±25% and to be statistically significant. February has highest while August has lowest claim rate. Only age group 36 - 45 has significantly lower claim rate than age group 20 - 25. The rate is about one third. Lastly female is not found to have significantly lower claim rates than males, however, there are indications that might be slightly so.
| Published in | International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics (Volume 7, Issue 6) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12 |
| Page(s) | 92-103 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, Claim Intensity, Seasonal Model, Maximum Likelihood Estimation
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APA Style
Mikiyas Gebresamuel Gebru. (2022). Stochastic Modelling of Claim Frequency in the Ethiopian Motor Insurance Corporation: A Case Study of Hawassa District in Ethiopia. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics, 7(6), 92-103. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12
ACS Style
Mikiyas Gebresamuel Gebru. Stochastic Modelling of Claim Frequency in the Ethiopian Motor Insurance Corporation: A Case Study of Hawassa District in Ethiopia. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Math. 2022, 7(6), 92-103. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12
AMA Style
Mikiyas Gebresamuel Gebru. Stochastic Modelling of Claim Frequency in the Ethiopian Motor Insurance Corporation: A Case Study of Hawassa District in Ethiopia. Int J Theor Appl Math. 2022;7(6):92-103. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12,
author = {Mikiyas Gebresamuel Gebru},
title = {Stochastic Modelling of Claim Frequency in the Ethiopian Motor Insurance Corporation: A Case Study of Hawassa District in Ethiopia},
journal = {International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics},
volume = {7},
number = {6},
pages = {92-103},
doi = {10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijtam.20210706.12},
abstract = {The objective of this study is to model seasonal variations in claim intensities and to evaluate the dependency of covariates on claim rates. The data for this study are obtained from claimants registered during September 2009 to August 2011, both inclusive at the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation in Hawassa. We present a procedure for consistent estimation of the claim frequency for motor vehicles in the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation, Hawassa District. The seasonal variation is modeled with a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a time varying intensity function. Covariates of the policy holders, like gender and age, is corrected for in the average claim rate by Poisson regression in a GLM setting. An approximate maximum likelihood criterion is used when estimating the model parameters. Numerical simulations are carried out applying the numerical software Matlab. These simulations show the reliability of the estimator. The seasonal parameters are found to be ±25% and to be statistically significant. February has highest while August has lowest claim rate. Only age group 36 - 45 has significantly lower claim rate than age group 20 - 25. The rate is about one third. Lastly female is not found to have significantly lower claim rates than males, however, there are indications that might be slightly so.},
year = {2022}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Stochastic Modelling of Claim Frequency in the Ethiopian Motor Insurance Corporation: A Case Study of Hawassa District in Ethiopia AU - Mikiyas Gebresamuel Gebru Y1 - 2022/02/05 PY - 2022 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12 DO - 10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12 T2 - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics JF - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics JO - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics SP - 92 EP - 103 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2575-5080 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20210706.12 AB - The objective of this study is to model seasonal variations in claim intensities and to evaluate the dependency of covariates on claim rates. The data for this study are obtained from claimants registered during September 2009 to August 2011, both inclusive at the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation in Hawassa. We present a procedure for consistent estimation of the claim frequency for motor vehicles in the Ethiopian Insurance Corporation, Hawassa District. The seasonal variation is modeled with a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a time varying intensity function. Covariates of the policy holders, like gender and age, is corrected for in the average claim rate by Poisson regression in a GLM setting. An approximate maximum likelihood criterion is used when estimating the model parameters. Numerical simulations are carried out applying the numerical software Matlab. These simulations show the reliability of the estimator. The seasonal parameters are found to be ±25% and to be statistically significant. February has highest while August has lowest claim rate. Only age group 36 - 45 has significantly lower claim rate than age group 20 - 25. The rate is about one third. Lastly female is not found to have significantly lower claim rates than males, however, there are indications that might be slightly so. VL - 7 IS - 6 ER -
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