Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu

Published in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics (Volume 6, Issue 5)

Received: 18 August 2020 Accepted: 8 September 2020 Published: 8 December 2020

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Abstract

As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2^nd and 15^th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12^th May to 10^th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9^th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.

Published in	International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics (Volume 6, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
Page(s)	53-63
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19 Cases, Days, Tests, Correlation, Linear Regression Model

References

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Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. (2020). Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics, 6(5), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Math. 2020, 6(5), 53-63. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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AMA Style

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. Int J Theor Appl Math. 2020;6(5):53-63. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11,
  author = {Alemayehu Siffir Argawu},
  title = {Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {53-63},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  abstract = {As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia
AU  - Alemayehu Siffir Argawu
Y1  - 2020/12/08
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
T2  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 53
EP  - 63
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5080
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
AB  - As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.
VL  - 6
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu

Department of Statistics, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia

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Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. (2020). Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics, 6(5), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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ACS Style

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Math. 2020, 6(5), 53-63. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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AMA Style

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu. Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia. Int J Theor Appl Math. 2020;6(5):53-63. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11,
  author = {Alemayehu Siffir Argawu},
  title = {Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {53-63},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijtam.20200605.11},
  abstract = {As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia
AU  - Alemayehu Siffir Argawu
Y1  - 2020/12/08
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
T2  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 53
EP  - 63
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5080
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11
AB  - As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.
VL  - 6
IS  - 5
ER  -

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