Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

Okumu Otieno Kevin; Edgar Otumba; Alilah Anekeya David; John Matuya

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

Okumu Otieno Kevin, Edgar Otumba, Alilah Anekeya David, John Matuya

Published in International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 6, Issue 3)

Received: 13 September 2020 Accepted: 27 September 2020 Published: 13 October 2020

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Abstract

Kenya is among the countries that are continuously investing in wind energy to meet her electricity demand. Kenya is working towards its vision 2030 of achieving a total of 2GW of energy from wind industry. To achieve this, there is a need that all the relevant data on wind characteristics must be available. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to find the most efficient two-parameter model for fitting wind speed distribution for Narok County in Kenya, using the maximum likelihood method. Hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 to 2018) from five sites within Narok County was used. Each of the distribution’s parameters was estimated and then a suitability test of the parameters was conducted using the goodness of fit test statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Anderson-Darling. An efficiency test was determined using the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, with the best decision taken based on the distribution having a smaller value of AIC and BIC. The results showed that the best distributions were the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.47634 and scale parameter of 1.25991, implying that gamma distribution was the best distribution for modeling Narok County wind speed data.

Published in	International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 6, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
Page(s)	57-64
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Wind Speed, Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal

References

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APA Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin, Edgar Otumba, Alilah Anekeya David, John Matuya. (2020). Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 6(3), 57-64. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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ACS Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin; Edgar Otumba; Alilah Anekeya David; John Matuya. Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2020, 6(3), 57-64. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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AMA Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin, Edgar Otumba, Alilah Anekeya David, John Matuya. Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2020;6(3):57-64. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13,
  author = {Okumu Otieno Kevin and Edgar Otumba and Alilah Anekeya David and John Matuya},
  title = {Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {57-64},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  abstract = {Kenya is among the countries that are continuously investing in wind energy to meet her electricity demand. Kenya is working towards its vision 2030 of achieving a total of 2GW of energy from wind industry. To achieve this, there is a need that all the relevant data on wind characteristics must be available. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to find the most efficient two-parameter model for fitting wind speed distribution for Narok County in Kenya, using the maximum likelihood method. Hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 to 2018) from five sites within Narok County was used. Each of the distribution’s parameters was estimated and then a suitability test of the parameters was conducted using the goodness of fit test statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Anderson-Darling. An efficiency test was determined using the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, with the best decision taken based on the distribution having a smaller value of AIC and BIC. The results showed that the best distributions were the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.47634 and scale parameter of 1.25991, implying that gamma distribution was the best distribution for modeling Narok County wind speed data.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method
AU  - Okumu Otieno Kevin
AU  - Edgar Otumba
AU  - Alilah Anekeya David
AU  - John Matuya
Y1  - 2020/10/13
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 57
EP  - 64
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
AB  - Kenya is among the countries that are continuously investing in wind energy to meet her electricity demand. Kenya is working towards its vision 2030 of achieving a total of 2GW of energy from wind industry. To achieve this, there is a need that all the relevant data on wind characteristics must be available. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to find the most efficient two-parameter model for fitting wind speed distribution for Narok County in Kenya, using the maximum likelihood method. Hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 to 2018) from five sites within Narok County was used. Each of the distribution’s parameters was estimated and then a suitability test of the parameters was conducted using the goodness of fit test statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Anderson-Darling. An efficiency test was determined using the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, with the best decision taken based on the distribution having a smaller value of AIC and BIC. The results showed that the best distributions were the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.47634 and scale parameter of 1.25991, implying that gamma distribution was the best distribution for modeling Narok County wind speed data.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Okumu Otieno Kevin

Department of Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Maasai Mara University, Narok, Kenya
Edgar Otumba

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Maseno University, Kisumu, Kenya
Alilah Anekeya David

Department of Mathematics, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kakamega, Kenya
John Matuya

Department of Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Maasai Mara University, Narok, Kenya

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APA Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin, Edgar Otumba, Alilah Anekeya David, John Matuya. (2020). Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 6(3), 57-64. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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ACS Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin; Edgar Otumba; Alilah Anekeya David; John Matuya. Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2020, 6(3), 57-64. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

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AMA Style

Okumu Otieno Kevin, Edgar Otumba, Alilah Anekeya David, John Matuya. Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2020;6(3):57-64. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13,
  author = {Okumu Otieno Kevin and Edgar Otumba and Alilah Anekeya David and John Matuya},
  title = {Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {57-64},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20200603.13},
  abstract = {Kenya is among the countries that are continuously investing in wind energy to meet her electricity demand. Kenya is working towards its vision 2030 of achieving a total of 2GW of energy from wind industry. To achieve this, there is a need that all the relevant data on wind characteristics must be available. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to find the most efficient two-parameter model for fitting wind speed distribution for Narok County in Kenya, using the maximum likelihood method. Hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 to 2018) from five sites within Narok County was used. Each of the distribution’s parameters was estimated and then a suitability test of the parameters was conducted using the goodness of fit test statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Anderson-Darling. An efficiency test was determined using the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, with the best decision taken based on the distribution having a smaller value of AIC and BIC. The results showed that the best distributions were the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.47634 and scale parameter of 1.25991, implying that gamma distribution was the best distribution for modeling Narok County wind speed data.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Fitting Wind Speed to a Two Parameter Distribution Model Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method
AU  - Okumu Otieno Kevin
AU  - Edgar Otumba
AU  - Alilah Anekeya David
AU  - John Matuya
Y1  - 2020/10/13
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 57
EP  - 64
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20200603.13
AB  - Kenya is among the countries that are continuously investing in wind energy to meet her electricity demand. Kenya is working towards its vision 2030 of achieving a total of 2GW of energy from wind industry. To achieve this, there is a need that all the relevant data on wind characteristics must be available. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to find the most efficient two-parameter model for fitting wind speed distribution for Narok County in Kenya, using the maximum likelihood method. Hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 to 2018) from five sites within Narok County was used. Each of the distribution’s parameters was estimated and then a suitability test of the parameters was conducted using the goodness of fit test statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Anderson-Darling. An efficiency test was determined using the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, with the best decision taken based on the distribution having a smaller value of AIC and BIC. The results showed that the best distributions were the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.47634 and scale parameter of 1.25991, implying that gamma distribution was the best distribution for modeling Narok County wind speed data.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

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