The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change

Petre Roman

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

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The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change

Petre Roman

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 9, Issue 4)

Received: 7 June 2021 Accepted: 19 July 2021 Published: 29 July 2021

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Abstract

In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: Does humanity have property rights and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.

Published in	International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 9, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
Page(s)	104-108
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Unpredictability, Critical Threshold, Climate Change, COVID-19

References

[1]	Henri Poincaré, “Science et Méthode", chap. 4, Le Hasard'', Editions Flammarion, 1908, page. 68.
[2]	Edward Lorenz, “Deterministic nonperiodic flow”, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1963, pag. 131-141.
[3]	James Gleick, “The Unpredictable Nature of Dynamic Systems”, essay in Gakushu.org, 18^th May 2011.
[4]	Petre Roman, "Aération naturelle des écoulements à surface libre”, PhD thesis, Paul Sabatier University of Toulouse, France, 18th of March 1974, introduction and page 96.
[5]	Paul Manneville and co-authors, “Le Chaos”- théorie et expérience, Collection du Commissariat à L'Energie Atomique, Editions Eyrolles, 1988, pp. 83, 89-90, 117, 129, 285-287.
[6]	Kurt Gödel, “On Formally Undecidable Propositions of Principia Mathematica and Related Systems I”, Collected Works, Univ. Press, Oxford, 1986, pag. 145.
[7]	Bertrand Russell, “Logic and Knowledge: Essays”, Routledge, London, 1956, pag. 339.
[8]	David Malone, “Can we learn to love uncertainty?” New Scientist, 4^th of August 2017, pag. 46.
[9]	Benoit Mandelbrot, “Sur l'épistémologie du hasard dans les sciences sociales”, in vol.” Logique et connaissance scientifique, Editions Gallimard, 1967, p. 1112.
[10]	“The Study of the Danube Water Quality in the Romanian Sector”, Petre Roman, Emil Gruia, Simona Marcoci, Gheorghe Panaitescu, Research Report no. 213, ICPGA-IPB, 1975-1985.
[11]	“We may be closer than we thought to Earth’s dangerous tipping points”, New Scientist Environment, 23 November 2019 and “Antarctica’s Doomsday glacier is melting”, New Scientist Environment, 15 January 2020.
[12]	“Early atmospheric contamination on top of the Himalayas since the onset of the European Industrial Revolution”, Paolo Gabrielli and others, Proceedings of the NAS of the USA, February 2020.
[13]	Paul Heyne, “The Economic Way of Thinking”, MacMillan Publishing Company, New York, 1987, pag. 233.
[14]	Nicholas Georgescu - Roegen, “The Entropy Law and the Economic Process”, Cambridge University Press, Mass, 1971, pp. 211-231.
[15]	Nicholas Georgescu - Roegen, “The Entropy Law and the Economic Problem”, Vanderbilt University, 1972, pp. 1-16.
[16]	Thierry de Montbrial, “Thermodynamique et Économie", in “Sadi Carnot et l’essor de la thermodynamique”, Editions du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1976, pp. 321-338.

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Petre Roman. (2021). The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 9(4), 104-108. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

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ACS Style

Petre Roman. The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2021, 9(4), 104-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

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AMA Style

Petre Roman. The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2021;9(4):104-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12,
  author = {Petre Roman},
  title = {The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {9},
  number = {4},
  pages = {104-108},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20210904.12},
  abstract = {In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: Does humanity have property rights and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change
AU  - Petre Roman
Y1  - 2021/07/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 104
EP  - 108
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
AB  - In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: Does humanity have property rights and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.
VL  - 9
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Petre Roman

Department of Hydraulics, Hydraulic Machinery and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Politehnica University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania

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APA Style

Petre Roman. (2021). The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 9(4), 104-108. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

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ACS Style

Petre Roman. The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2021, 9(4), 104-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Petre Roman. The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2021;9(4):104-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12,
  author = {Petre Roman},
  title = {The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {9},
  number = {4},
  pages = {104-108},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20210904.12},
  abstract = {In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: Does humanity have property rights and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change
AU  - Petre Roman
Y1  - 2021/07/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 104
EP  - 108
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12
AB  - In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: Does humanity have property rights and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.
VL  - 9
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download