Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed; Bogale Gebramariam

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed, Bogale Gebramariam

Published in International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 6, Issue 2)

Received: 17 February 2021 Accepted: 21 April 2021 Published: 29 April 2021

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Abstract

Globally the impact of climate change affects many water resources projects, thus it is important to assess its impact on reservoir performance. This study mainly assesses the performance of Upper and Lower Dabus reservoirs under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV). The future climate variables were projected by General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaled at the basin level for the A1B emission scenario using the Regional Climate Model (RCM). The trend of streamflow forecasted at outlet (merging to main Abbay River) was assessed and the inflow generated to reservoirs was used to determine reservoirs performance indices (RRV). Finally the inflow to the reservoirs with monthly evapotranspiration from the reservoirs was used as input to HEC-ResSim to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. The average annual inflow to the upper Dabus reservoirs shows an increasing of 3.17% for early century (2010-2040) and decreasing of 2.08% and 4.46% for mid (2040-2070) and late century (2070-2100) respectively. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% for no reservoir condition and greater than 90% for the other condition considered but volumetric reliability and resilience shows 100% for all conditions. According to the vulnerability result the reservoirs will face shortage of flow which ranges from 8.85% to 88.51%. The result of reservoir simulation shows that the power plant parameters does not shows much significant in all scenarios considered in this study. As a result of these the Dabus sub-basin reservoirs have sufficient potential to produce required power for the country according to reconnaissance level study of the basin demand requirement and even more power can be produced.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science (Volume 6, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
Page(s)	29-39
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Upper and Lower Dabus Reservoirs, Climate Change, RCM, RRV-criteria, HEC-ResSim, Reservoir Operation

References

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[2]	Awulachew, A. D. (2009). Blue Nile Basin Characterization and Geospatial Atlas. International Water Management Institute, (p. 6). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[3]	Chang, M. and R. Lee. (1974). Objective of Double-Mass Curve Analysis. Water Resources Research, 10 (6): 1123-1126.
[4]	Engineer, U. A. (2007). HEC-ResSim-Reservoir System Simulation. In U. A. Engineer, HEC-ResSim-Reservoir System Simulation. US Army corps of Engineer, Institute of water Resources, Hydrological Engineering Center.
[5]	Girma, Y. (2008). Hydrological Response of a Catchment to Climate Change, Case Study on Upper Beles Sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Msc Thesis at UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water.
[6]	Hostetler S. W. et al., A. J. (2011). Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation and supporting documentation for users:. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1238.
[7]	Hurst et al. (2007). HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation System. In U. A. Engineer.
[8]	IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: Impact, Adoptation and Vulnerablity. 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA: Cambridge University Press.
[9]	IPCC-TGCIA. (1999). Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. In T. M. Version 1. Prepared by Carter, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact (pp. 35-40).
[10]	Jothiprakash, R. V. (2004). Intermittent reservoir daily-inflow prediction using lumped and distributed data multi-linear regression models. Bombay: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay 400 076, India.
[11]	Leander, R. and Buishand. (2007). Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. J. Hy-drol., 332, 487–496, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.006.
[12]	McCuen, R. H. (1998). Hydrologic Analysis and design. In R. H. McCuen, Hydrologic Analysis and design (pp. 208-210). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458: University of Maryland.
[13]	Ministry of Water Resources. (2002). DABUS MEDIUM HYDROPOWER PROJECT.
[14]	Modini, C. (2010). USING HEC-RESSIM FOR COLUMBIA RIVER TREATY FLOOD CONTROL. Chan Modini, Senior Hydraulic Engineer, Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Water Resource Systems Division.
[15]	Motovilov Y. G., G. L. (1999). Regional model of hydrological cycle. Application to the NOPEX region. Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo.
[16]	Thomas et al. (2004). Global streamflows – Part 2: Reservoir storage–yield performance. Journal of Hydrology.

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Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed, Bogale Gebramariam. (2021). Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 6(2), 29-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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ACS Style

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed; Bogale Gebramariam. Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2021, 6(2), 29-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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AMA Style

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed, Bogale Gebramariam. Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2021;6(2):29-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12,
  author = {Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed and Bogale Gebramariam},
  title = {Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {29-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20210602.12},
  abstract = {Globally the impact of climate change affects many water resources projects, thus it is important to assess its impact on reservoir performance. This study mainly assesses the performance of Upper and Lower Dabus reservoirs under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV). The future climate variables were projected by General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaled at the basin level for the A1B emission scenario using the Regional Climate Model (RCM). The trend of streamflow forecasted at outlet (merging to main Abbay River) was assessed and the inflow generated to reservoirs was used to determine reservoirs performance indices (RRV). Finally the inflow to the reservoirs with monthly evapotranspiration from the reservoirs was used as input to HEC-ResSim to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. The average annual inflow to the upper Dabus reservoirs shows an increasing of 3.17% for early century (2010-2040) and decreasing of 2.08% and 4.46% for mid (2040-2070) and late century (2070-2100) respectively. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% for no reservoir condition and greater than 90% for the other condition considered but volumetric reliability and resilience shows 100% for all conditions. According to the vulnerability result the reservoirs will face shortage of flow which ranges from 8.85% to 88.51%. The result of reservoir simulation shows that the power plant parameters does not shows much significant in all scenarios considered in this study. As a result of these the Dabus sub-basin reservoirs have sufficient potential to produce required power for the country according to reconnaissance level study of the basin demand requirement and even more power can be produced.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia
AU  - Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed
AU  - Bogale Gebramariam
Y1  - 2021/04/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 29
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
AB  - Globally the impact of climate change affects many water resources projects, thus it is important to assess its impact on reservoir performance. This study mainly assesses the performance of Upper and Lower Dabus reservoirs under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV). The future climate variables were projected by General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaled at the basin level for the A1B emission scenario using the Regional Climate Model (RCM). The trend of streamflow forecasted at outlet (merging to main Abbay River) was assessed and the inflow generated to reservoirs was used to determine reservoirs performance indices (RRV). Finally the inflow to the reservoirs with monthly evapotranspiration from the reservoirs was used as input to HEC-ResSim to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. The average annual inflow to the upper Dabus reservoirs shows an increasing of 3.17% for early century (2010-2040) and decreasing of 2.08% and 4.46% for mid (2040-2070) and late century (2070-2100) respectively. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% for no reservoir condition and greater than 90% for the other condition considered but volumetric reliability and resilience shows 100% for all conditions. According to the vulnerability result the reservoirs will face shortage of flow which ranges from 8.85% to 88.51%. The result of reservoir simulation shows that the power plant parameters does not shows much significant in all scenarios considered in this study. As a result of these the Dabus sub-basin reservoirs have sufficient potential to produce required power for the country according to reconnaissance level study of the basin demand requirement and even more power can be produced.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed

Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
Bogale Gebramariam

Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed, Bogale Gebramariam. (2021). Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science, 6(2), 29-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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ACS Style

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed; Bogale Gebramariam. Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. Int. J. Energy Environ. Sci. 2021, 6(2), 29-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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AMA Style

Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed, Bogale Gebramariam. Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia. Int J Energy Environ Sci. 2021;6(2):29-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12,
  author = {Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed and Bogale Gebramariam},
  title = {Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {29-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijees.20210602.12},
  abstract = {Globally the impact of climate change affects many water resources projects, thus it is important to assess its impact on reservoir performance. This study mainly assesses the performance of Upper and Lower Dabus reservoirs under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV). The future climate variables were projected by General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaled at the basin level for the A1B emission scenario using the Regional Climate Model (RCM). The trend of streamflow forecasted at outlet (merging to main Abbay River) was assessed and the inflow generated to reservoirs was used to determine reservoirs performance indices (RRV). Finally the inflow to the reservoirs with monthly evapotranspiration from the reservoirs was used as input to HEC-ResSim to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. The average annual inflow to the upper Dabus reservoirs shows an increasing of 3.17% for early century (2010-2040) and decreasing of 2.08% and 4.46% for mid (2040-2070) and late century (2070-2100) respectively. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% for no reservoir condition and greater than 90% for the other condition considered but volumetric reliability and resilience shows 100% for all conditions. According to the vulnerability result the reservoirs will face shortage of flow which ranges from 8.85% to 88.51%. The result of reservoir simulation shows that the power plant parameters does not shows much significant in all scenarios considered in this study. As a result of these the Dabus sub-basin reservoirs have sufficient potential to produce required power for the country according to reconnaissance level study of the basin demand requirement and even more power can be produced.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Performance Assessment of Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Under the Impact of Climate Change the Case of Lower and upper Dabus Reservoirs, UBN Basin, Ethiopia
AU  - Jemal Ibrahim Mohammed
AU  - Bogale Gebramariam
Y1  - 2021/04/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science
SP  - 29
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-9546
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijees.20210602.12
AB  - Globally the impact of climate change affects many water resources projects, thus it is important to assess its impact on reservoir performance. This study mainly assesses the performance of Upper and Lower Dabus reservoirs under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV). The future climate variables were projected by General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaled at the basin level for the A1B emission scenario using the Regional Climate Model (RCM). The trend of streamflow forecasted at outlet (merging to main Abbay River) was assessed and the inflow generated to reservoirs was used to determine reservoirs performance indices (RRV). Finally the inflow to the reservoirs with monthly evapotranspiration from the reservoirs was used as input to HEC-ResSim to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. The average annual inflow to the upper Dabus reservoirs shows an increasing of 3.17% for early century (2010-2040) and decreasing of 2.08% and 4.46% for mid (2040-2070) and late century (2070-2100) respectively. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% for no reservoir condition and greater than 90% for the other condition considered but volumetric reliability and resilience shows 100% for all conditions. According to the vulnerability result the reservoirs will face shortage of flow which ranges from 8.85% to 88.51%. The result of reservoir simulation shows that the power plant parameters does not shows much significant in all scenarios considered in this study. As a result of these the Dabus sub-basin reservoirs have sufficient potential to produce required power for the country according to reconnaissance level study of the basin demand requirement and even more power can be produced.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

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