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Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022

Received: 14 May 2024     Accepted: 6 June 2024     Published: 19 June 2024
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Abstract

Cholera is a deadly disease caused by consumption of either food or water that is contaminated with bacterium known as Vibro cholerae. In the 19th century, Cholera had spread across the globe from its original source in Ganges Delta, India. This research aimed to investigated the factors contributing to the spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. The key objective was to fit a multiple linear regression model which aid in determining the goodness of fit as well as examining the relationship between different types of drinking water and spread of Cholera. Secondary data was obtained from United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). The results showed a strong positive linear relationship between Surface water and proportion of population affected by Cholera. 88% total variation in the proportion of population being affected by Cholera can be explained by the Unimproved Basic water (UBW), Surface water (SW) and Least Basic drinking water (LBW). Significantly this research encouraged the use of the least basic drinking water which clearly showed an inverse proportion to the proportion of population affected by Cholera. In addition to that, the researchers recommend improved access to clean water and create awareness on the dangers of using untreated water.

Published in International Journal of Data Science and Analysis (Volume 10, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12
Page(s) 33-40
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Cholera, Multiple Linear Regression, Coefficient of Determination, Correlation Coefficient

References
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[3] Charnley, G. E., Kelman, I., & Murray, K. A. (2022). Drought-related cholera outbreaks in Africa and the implications for climate change: a narrative review. Pathogens and global health, 116(1), 3-12.
[4] Cowman, G., Otipo, S., Njeru, I., Achia, T., Thirumurthy, H., Bartram, J., & Kioko, J. (2017). Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008- 2013. Pan African Medical Journal, 28(1), 156-156.
[5] Gaffney, M. (2016). Nature, economy, and equity: Sacred water, profane markets. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 75(5), 1064-1231.
[6] Girotto, C. D., Behzadian, K., Musah, A., Chen, A. S., Ali, A., & Campos, L. C. (2021). Impact of water and sanitation services on cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa.
[7] Hickey, G. L. Checking model assumptions with regression diagnostics.
[8] Leidner, A. J., & Adusumilli, N. C. (2013). Estimating effects of improved drinking water and sanitation on cholera. Journal of water and health, 11(4), 671-683.
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[10] Mutonga, D., Langat, D., Mwangi, D., Tonui, J., Njeru, M., Abade, A., ... & Dahlke, M. (2013). National surveillance data on the epidemiology of cholera in Kenya, 1997-2010. The Journal of infectious diseases, 208 (suppl-1), S55-S61.
[11] Ntajal, J., Falkenberg, T., Kistemann, T., & Evers, M. (2020). Influences of land-use dynamics and surface water systems interactions on water-related infectious diseases? A systematic review. Water, 12(3), 631.
[12] Ogisma, L., Li, T., Xiao, H., O’Donnell, F., & Molnar, J. (2021). Analysis of community level factors contributing to cholera infection and water testing access in the NorthernCorridorofHaiti. WaterEnvironmentResearch, 93(10), 1819-1828.
[13] Oyugi, E. O., Boru, W., Obonyo, M., Githuku, J., Onyango, D., Wandeba, A., ... & Gura, Z. (2017). An outbreak of cholera in western Kenya, 2015: a case control study. The Pan African Medical Journal, 28 (Suppl 1).
[14] Rebaudet, S., Sudre, B., Faucher, B., & Piarroux, R. (2013). Environmental determinants of cholera outbreaks in inland Africa: a systematic review of main transmission foci and propagation routes. The Journal of infectious diseases, 208 (suppl-1), S46-S54.
[15] Shapiro, R. L., Otieno, M. R., Adcock, P. M., Phillips- Howard, P. A., Hawley, W. A., Kumar, L., ... & Slutsker, L. (1999). Transmission of epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1 in rural western Kenya associated with drinking water from Lake Victoria: an environmental reservoir for cholera? The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 60(2), 271-276.
[16] Shultz, A., Omollo, J. O., Burke, H., Qassim, M., Ochieng, J. B., Weinberg, M., ... & Breiman, R. F. (2009). Cholera outbreak in Kenyan refugee camp: risk factors for illness and importance of sanitation. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 80(4), 640.
[17] Sulayman, F. A. T. I. M. A. (2014). Modelling and analysis of the spread of cholera disease in Nigeria with environmental control. Research thesis.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Okinyi, S., Karomo, J. N., Mbinya, N. D., Thoya, M. K. (2024). Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, 10(2), 33-40. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12

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    ACS Style

    Okinyi, S.; Karomo, J. N.; Mbinya, N. D.; Thoya, M. K. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. Int. J. Data Sci. Anal. 2024, 10(2), 33-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12

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    AMA Style

    Okinyi S, Karomo JN, Mbinya ND, Thoya MK. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. Int J Data Sci Anal. 2024;10(2):33-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12,
      author = {Samuel Okinyi and Joseph Njuguna Karomo and Nzioka Dorcas Mbinya and Mohammed Kassim Thoya},
      title = {Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022},
      journal = {International Journal of Data Science and Analysis},
      volume = {10},
      number = {2},
      pages = {33-40},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijdsa.20241002.12},
      abstract = {Cholera is a deadly disease caused by consumption of either food or water that is contaminated with bacterium known as Vibro cholerae. In the 19th century, Cholera had spread across the globe from its original source in Ganges Delta, India. This research aimed to investigated the factors contributing to the spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. The key objective was to fit a multiple linear regression model which aid in determining the goodness of fit as well as examining the relationship between different types of drinking water and spread of Cholera. Secondary data was obtained from United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). The results showed a strong positive linear relationship between Surface water and proportion of population affected by Cholera. 88% total variation in the proportion of population being affected by Cholera can be explained by the Unimproved Basic water (UBW), Surface water (SW) and Least Basic drinking water (LBW). Significantly this research encouraged the use of the least basic drinking water which clearly showed an inverse proportion to the proportion of population affected by Cholera. In addition to that, the researchers recommend improved access to clean water and create awareness on the dangers of using untreated water.},
     year = {2024}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022
    AU  - Samuel Okinyi
    AU  - Joseph Njuguna Karomo
    AU  - Nzioka Dorcas Mbinya
    AU  - Mohammed Kassim Thoya
    Y1  - 2024/06/19
    PY  - 2024
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12
    T2  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    JF  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    JO  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    SP  - 33
    EP  - 40
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-1891
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20241002.12
    AB  - Cholera is a deadly disease caused by consumption of either food or water that is contaminated with bacterium known as Vibro cholerae. In the 19th century, Cholera had spread across the globe from its original source in Ganges Delta, India. This research aimed to investigated the factors contributing to the spread of Cholera in Kenya from 2000 to 2022. The key objective was to fit a multiple linear regression model which aid in determining the goodness of fit as well as examining the relationship between different types of drinking water and spread of Cholera. Secondary data was obtained from United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). The results showed a strong positive linear relationship between Surface water and proportion of population affected by Cholera. 88% total variation in the proportion of population being affected by Cholera can be explained by the Unimproved Basic water (UBW), Surface water (SW) and Least Basic drinking water (LBW). Significantly this research encouraged the use of the least basic drinking water which clearly showed an inverse proportion to the proportion of population affected by Cholera. In addition to that, the researchers recommend improved access to clean water and create awareness on the dangers of using untreated water.
    VL  - 10
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

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