Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria

Audu Musa Mabu; Babagana Modu; Babagana Ibrahim Bukar; Musa Ibrahim Dagona

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria

Audu Musa Mabu, Babagana Modu, Babagana Ibrahim Bukar, Musa Ibrahim Dagona

Published in International Journal of Data Science and Analysis (Volume 8, Issue 2)

Received: 22 January 2022 Accepted: 4 March 2022 Published: 15 March 2022

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Abstract

Due to spatial and temporal changes in climate, the incidences of COVID-19 is much more higher in some parts of America, Europe and Asia by comparing with Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies show the link between climate factors (e.g., temperature rainfall and humidity) and COVID-19 occurrence will be used to aid intervention planning, prevention and control policies. Nigeria is a country that is sensitive to spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of climate factors, and fully knowing it link with COVID-19 is crucial towards mitigation. In this study, we examined the link by firstly deployed convenience sampling to select three cities (Abuja, Kano and Lagos) where the international airports of Nigeria are situated and also the index case of the country came through Lagos. Secondly, we used the reported cases of COVID-19 from its onset in the country (22/02/2020) up to 21/05/2021. Thirdly, lagged regression was used to explore the link between weekly counts of COVID-19 cases and weekly recorded average of the climate data; including the google trend index as a measure of the populace health seeking behaviour. We found a significant influence of temperature, humidity and heath seeking trend, with a very negligible contributions of precipitation to the occurrence of the COVID-19 in the states investigated. This result will assist policy makers with a prior knowledge to plan for non-pharmaceutical interventions in anticipation of possible outbreak.

Published in	International Journal of Data Science and Analysis (Volume 8, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
Page(s)	23-29
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19, Climate, Lagged, Regression, Trend

References

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APA Style

Audu Musa Mabu, Babagana Modu, Babagana Ibrahim Bukar, Musa Ibrahim Dagona. (2022). Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, 8(2), 23-29. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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ACS Style

Audu Musa Mabu; Babagana Modu; Babagana Ibrahim Bukar; Musa Ibrahim Dagona. Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. Int. J. Data Sci. Anal. 2022, 8(2), 23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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AMA Style

Audu Musa Mabu, Babagana Modu, Babagana Ibrahim Bukar, Musa Ibrahim Dagona. Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. Int J Data Sci Anal. 2022;8(2):23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12,
  author = {Audu Musa Mabu and Babagana Modu and Babagana Ibrahim Bukar and Musa Ibrahim Dagona},
  title = {Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria},
  journal = {International Journal of Data Science and Analysis},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {23-29},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  abstract = {Due to spatial and temporal changes in climate, the incidences of COVID-19 is much more higher in some parts of America, Europe and Asia by comparing with Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies show the link between climate factors (e.g., temperature rainfall and humidity) and COVID-19 occurrence will be used to aid intervention planning, prevention and control policies. Nigeria is a country that is sensitive to spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of climate factors, and fully knowing it link with COVID-19 is crucial towards mitigation. In this study, we examined the link by firstly deployed convenience sampling to select three cities (Abuja, Kano and Lagos) where the international airports of Nigeria are situated and also the index case of the country came through Lagos. Secondly, we used the reported cases of COVID-19 from its onset in the country (22/02/2020) up to 21/05/2021. Thirdly, lagged regression was used to explore the link between weekly counts of COVID-19 cases and weekly recorded average of the climate data; including the google trend index as a measure of the populace health seeking behaviour. We found a significant influence of temperature, humidity and heath seeking trend, with a very negligible contributions of precipitation to the occurrence of the COVID-19 in the states investigated. This result will assist policy makers with a prior knowledge to plan for non-pharmaceutical interventions in anticipation of possible outbreak.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria
AU  - Audu Musa Mabu
AU  - Babagana Modu
AU  - Babagana Ibrahim Bukar
AU  - Musa Ibrahim Dagona
Y1  - 2022/03/15
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
T2  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
SP  - 23
EP  - 29
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1891
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
AB  - Due to spatial and temporal changes in climate, the incidences of COVID-19 is much more higher in some parts of America, Europe and Asia by comparing with Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies show the link between climate factors (e.g., temperature rainfall and humidity) and COVID-19 occurrence will be used to aid intervention planning, prevention and control policies. Nigeria is a country that is sensitive to spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of climate factors, and fully knowing it link with COVID-19 is crucial towards mitigation. In this study, we examined the link by firstly deployed convenience sampling to select three cities (Abuja, Kano and Lagos) where the international airports of Nigeria are situated and also the index case of the country came through Lagos. Secondly, we used the reported cases of COVID-19 from its onset in the country (22/02/2020) up to 21/05/2021. Thirdly, lagged regression was used to explore the link between weekly counts of COVID-19 cases and weekly recorded average of the climate data; including the google trend index as a measure of the populace health seeking behaviour. We found a significant influence of temperature, humidity and heath seeking trend, with a very negligible contributions of precipitation to the occurrence of the COVID-19 in the states investigated. This result will assist policy makers with a prior knowledge to plan for non-pharmaceutical interventions in anticipation of possible outbreak.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Audu Musa Mabu

Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria
Babagana Modu

Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Faculty of Science, Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria
Babagana Ibrahim Bukar

Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Faculty of Science, Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria
Musa Ibrahim Dagona

Branch Operations Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Maiduguri, Nigeria

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APA Style

Audu Musa Mabu, Babagana Modu, Babagana Ibrahim Bukar, Musa Ibrahim Dagona. (2022). Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, 8(2), 23-29. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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ACS Style

Audu Musa Mabu; Babagana Modu; Babagana Ibrahim Bukar; Musa Ibrahim Dagona. Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. Int. J. Data Sci. Anal. 2022, 8(2), 23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

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AMA Style

Audu Musa Mabu, Babagana Modu, Babagana Ibrahim Bukar, Musa Ibrahim Dagona. Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria. Int J Data Sci Anal. 2022;8(2):23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12,
  author = {Audu Musa Mabu and Babagana Modu and Babagana Ibrahim Bukar and Musa Ibrahim Dagona},
  title = {Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria},
  journal = {International Journal of Data Science and Analysis},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {23-29},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijdsa.20220802.12},
  abstract = {Due to spatial and temporal changes in climate, the incidences of COVID-19 is much more higher in some parts of America, Europe and Asia by comparing with Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies show the link between climate factors (e.g., temperature rainfall and humidity) and COVID-19 occurrence will be used to aid intervention planning, prevention and control policies. Nigeria is a country that is sensitive to spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of climate factors, and fully knowing it link with COVID-19 is crucial towards mitigation. In this study, we examined the link by firstly deployed convenience sampling to select three cities (Abuja, Kano and Lagos) where the international airports of Nigeria are situated and also the index case of the country came through Lagos. Secondly, we used the reported cases of COVID-19 from its onset in the country (22/02/2020) up to 21/05/2021. Thirdly, lagged regression was used to explore the link between weekly counts of COVID-19 cases and weekly recorded average of the climate data; including the google trend index as a measure of the populace health seeking behaviour. We found a significant influence of temperature, humidity and heath seeking trend, with a very negligible contributions of precipitation to the occurrence of the COVID-19 in the states investigated. This result will assist policy makers with a prior knowledge to plan for non-pharmaceutical interventions in anticipation of possible outbreak.},
 year = {2022}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling the Impact of Climate Factors on COVID-19 Transmission in Nigeria
AU  - Audu Musa Mabu
AU  - Babagana Modu
AU  - Babagana Ibrahim Bukar
AU  - Musa Ibrahim Dagona
Y1  - 2022/03/15
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
T2  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
SP  - 23
EP  - 29
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1891
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220802.12
AB  - Due to spatial and temporal changes in climate, the incidences of COVID-19 is much more higher in some parts of America, Europe and Asia by comparing with Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies show the link between climate factors (e.g., temperature rainfall and humidity) and COVID-19 occurrence will be used to aid intervention planning, prevention and control policies. Nigeria is a country that is sensitive to spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of climate factors, and fully knowing it link with COVID-19 is crucial towards mitigation. In this study, we examined the link by firstly deployed convenience sampling to select three cities (Abuja, Kano and Lagos) where the international airports of Nigeria are situated and also the index case of the country came through Lagos. Secondly, we used the reported cases of COVID-19 from its onset in the country (22/02/2020) up to 21/05/2021. Thirdly, lagged regression was used to explore the link between weekly counts of COVID-19 cases and weekly recorded average of the climate data; including the google trend index as a measure of the populace health seeking behaviour. We found a significant influence of temperature, humidity and heath seeking trend, with a very negligible contributions of precipitation to the occurrence of the COVID-19 in the states investigated. This result will assist policy makers with a prior knowledge to plan for non-pharmaceutical interventions in anticipation of possible outbreak.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download