System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta

Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum; George Smart Nduka

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Research Article |

| Peer-Reviewed

System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta

Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum

, George Smart Nduka^*

Published in International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (Volume 12, Issue 3)

Received: 15 June 2026 Accepted: 14 August 2026 Published: 18 September 2026

Views: Downloads:

Download PDF

Share This Article

Twitter
Linked In
Facebook

Abstract

The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.

Published in	International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (Volume 12, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
Page(s)	106-115
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

System Dynamics, Economic Growth, Carbon Pricing, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Niger Delta, Differential Transform Method

References

[1]	S. J. Nwankwo, V. I. Asiegbu, and A. C. Briggs, "The politics of resource control agitation and its effects on the socio-economic development of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria," International Journal of Development and Sustainability, vol. 1, no. 2, 2021.
[2]	K. B. Rodgers, S. S. Lee, and N. Rosenbloom, "Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability," Earth System Dynamics, vol. 3, p. 154, 2021.
[3]	S. Bamidele and N. I. Erameh, "Environmental degradation and sustainable peace dialogue in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria," Resources Policy, 2023.
[4]	D. R. Känzig, "The unequal economic consequences of carbon pricing," National Bureau of Economic Research, 2023.
[5]	R. Moessner, "Effects of carbon pricing on inflation," Climate Policy, 2025.
[6]	D. R. Känzig, "The unequal economic consequences of carbon pricing," National Bureau of Economic Research, no. w31221, 2023.
[7]	A. Köppl and M. Schratzenstaller, "Carbon taxation: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, 2023.
[8]	J. F. Mercure, P. Salas, P. Vercoulen, G. Semieniuk, et al., "Reframing incentives for climate policy action," Nature Energy, 2021.
[9]	J. van den Bergh, J. Castro, S. Drews, F. Exadaktylos, et al., "Designing an effective climate-policy mix: Accounting for instrument synergy," Climate Policy, vol. 2, p. 245, 2021.
[10]	G. Semieniuk, L. Taylor, A. Rezai, and D. K. Foley, "Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy," Nature Climate Change, vol. 7, p. 724, 2021.
[11]	G. Karmakar, "Living with extraction: Environmental injustice, slow observation and the decolonial turn in the Niger Delta, Nigeria," International Social Science Journal, 2024.
[12]	J. R. Thompson, C. L. R. Laizé, and M. C. Acreman, "Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta," Hydrology Research, 2021.
[13]	P. G. Suku, E. Ugwoha, and O. F. Orikpete, "The socio-economic and environmental impacts of petroleum refinery operations in the Niger Delta region," The Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 1282-1291, 2023.
[14]	S. O. Edeki, R. M. Jena, O. P. Ogundile, and S. Chakraverty, "PDTM for the solution of a time-fractional barrier option Black-Scholes model," Journal of Physics: Conference Series, vol. 1734, no. 1, p. 012055, 2021.
[15]	O. D. Elisha and M. J. Felix, "Destruction of coastal ecosystems and the vicious cycle of poverty in Niger Delta region," Journal of Global Agriculture and Ecology, 2021.
[16]	H. A. Umar, M. F. A. Khanan, C. Ogbonnaya, and M. S. Shiru, "Environmental and socioeconomic impacts of pipeline transport interdiction in Niger Delta, Nigeria," Heliyon, vol. 7, p. e0617, 2021.
[17]	C. E. Deinne and D. D. Ajayi, "Dynamics of inequality, poverty and sustainable development of Delta State, Nigeria," GeoJournal, 2021.
[18]	J. Lilliestam, A. Patt, and G. Bersalli, "The effect of carbon pricing on technological change for full energy decarbonization: A review of empirical ex post evidence," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2021.
[19]	M. K. Anser, M. A. Khan, and A. A. Nassani, "Relationship of environment with technological innovation, carbon pricing, renewable energy, and global food production," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 2021.
[20]	S. Y. Philip, S. F. Kew, and G. J. van Oldenborgh, "Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021," Earth System Dynamics, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 535-553, 2022.
[21]	R. Rafaty, G. Dolphin, and F. Pretis, "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO$_2$ emissions," Energy Economics, vol. 123, p. 106814, 2025.
[22]	X. Ren, J. Li, F. He, and B. Lucey, "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying Granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 175, p. 113122, 2023.
[23]	N. Ohlendorf, M. Jakob, J. C. Minx, and C. Schröder, "Distributional impacts of carbon pricing: A meta-analysis," Environmental and Resource Economics, 2021.
[24]	M. Chepeliev, I. Osorio-Rodarte, et al., "Distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies under the Paris Agreement: Inter- and intra-regional perspectives," Energy Economics, 2021.
[25]	M. Koot and F. Wijnhoven, "Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model," Applied Energy, 2021.
[26]	S. O. Edeki, G. O. Akinlabi, and N. Hinov, "Zhou method for the solutions of systems of proportional delay differential equations," MATEC Web of Conferences, vol. 125, p. 02001, 2017.
[27]	I. Maumoh, A. Onoja, I. Alhassan, and S. Muhideen, "Opportunities, progress and challenges in carbon emission pricing and markets for East and South African regions," Scholar Archive, 2022.
[28]	A. Mostafaeipour, A. A. Bidokhti, and M. B. Fakhrzad, "A new model for the use of renewable electricity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, vol. 239, p. 122178, 2022.
[29]	A. J. Tolley, Z. Y. Wang, and S. Y. Zhou, "New positivity bounds from full crossing symmetry," Journal of High Energy Physics, vol. 2021, no. 5, pp. 1-42, 2021.
[30]	R. Almeida, N. Martins, and C. J. Silva, "Global stability condition for the disease-free equilibrium point of fractional epidemiological models," Axioms, vol. 10, no. 4, p. 238, 2021.
[31]	S. O. Edeki and V. E. Azu-Nwosu, "Deposit insurance modeling based on standard power option payoff using Picard-Lindelöf iteration," Annals of Financial Economics, vol. 19, no. 3, p. 2450013, 2024.
[32]	G. Jyothi and T. Pradhan, "A Mathematical Model: Analysis, Existence and Uniqueness of Nonlinear," Applications of Computational Intelligence in Management and Mathematics I: 9th ICCM 2023, NERIST, Arunachal Pradesh, India, August 04-05, p. 195, 2025.
[33]	G. Jyothi and T. Pradhan, "A Mathematical Model: Analysis, Existence and Uniqueness of Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations," in International Conference on Computers, Management & Mathematical Sciences, pp. 195-209, 2023.
[34]	T. Demir, "Numerical and theoretical analysis of existence and uniqueness analysis in q-calculus-based dynamic systems," January 2025.

Cite This Article

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Abanum, G. C., Nduka, G. S. (2026). System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, 12(3), 106-115. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Abanum, G. C.; Nduka, G. S. System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. Int. J. Appl. Math. Theor. Phys. 2026, 12(3), 106-115. doi: 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Abanum GC, Nduka GS. System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. Int J Appl Math Theor Phys. 2026;12(3):106-115. doi: 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13,
  author = {Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum and George Smart Nduka},
  title = {System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta},
  journal = {International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics},
  volume = {12},
  number = {3},
  pages = {106-115},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  abstract = {The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta
AU  - Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum
AU  - George Smart Nduka
Y1  - 2026/09/18
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
T2  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
JF  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
JO  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
SP  - 106
EP  - 115
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5927
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
AB  - The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download

Author Information

Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum

Department of Mathematics, Dennis Osadebay University, Asaba, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8173-226X
George Smart Nduka

Department of Mathematics, Dennis Osadebay University, Asaba, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0006-7157-7722

Download PDF

Submit an Article

Sections

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Abanum, G. C., Nduka, G. S. (2026). System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, 12(3), 106-115. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Abanum, G. C.; Nduka, G. S. System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. Int. J. Appl. Math. Theor. Phys. 2026, 12(3), 106-115. doi: 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Abanum GC, Nduka GS. System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta. Int J Appl Math Theor Phys. 2026;12(3):106-115. doi: 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13,
  author = {Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum and George Smart Nduka},
  title = {System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta},
  journal = {International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics},
  volume = {12},
  number = {3},
  pages = {106-115},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijamtp.20261203.13},
  abstract = {The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta
AU  - Godspower Chukwunedum Abanum
AU  - George Smart Nduka
Y1  - 2026/09/18
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
T2  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
JF  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
JO  - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
SP  - 106
EP  - 115
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5927
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13
AB  - The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download