| Peer-Reviewed

Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets

Received: 24 December 2019     Accepted: 2 January 2020     Published: 10 March 2020
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse integration and test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in sixteen international financial markets. The sample covers the period from January 2002 to July 2019 and is divided into three sub-periods. In order to achieve such an analysis, the aim is to provide answers to two questions. Has the global financial crisis intensified the financial integration of international markets? If there is a process of mean-reversion in the international stock markets, with arbitrage, the hypothesis of portfolio diversification will be feasible? The results suggest that the global financial crisis has intensified the integration level of international financial markets. Regarding random walk and market efficiency hypotheses, in its weak form, the results suggest the existence of a mean-reversion and the rejection of the hypothesis of information efficiency, in its weak form, in developed and emerging markets, European and non-European. In terms of portfolio diversification analysis, we see that levels of financial integration decreased significantly in the sub-period following the global financial crisis, namely with its respective benchmarks, such as the US market, Japan and Hong Kong. We can assess the existence of feasible diversification opportunities in the long term.

Published in International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management (Volume 5, Issue 1)

This article belongs to the Special Issue Perspectives on Risk Management and Impact on Sustainability of Companies

DOI 10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14
Page(s) 40-51
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Financial Integration, Randow Walk Hypothesis, Arbitration, Portfolio Diversification

References
[1] K. J. Forbes and R. Rigobon, “No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements,” J. Finance, 2002.
[2] R. Dias, J. V. da Silva, and A. Dionísio, “Financial markets of the LAC region: Does the crisis influence the financial integration?,” Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 63, no. January, pp. 160–173, 2019.
[3] Q. Zhang, C. Larkin, and B. M. Lucey, “Universities, knowledge exchange and policy: A comparative study of Ireland and the UK,” Sci. Public Policy, 2017.
[4] O. Malafeyev, A. Awasthi, K. S. Kambekar, and A. Kupinskaya, “Random Walks and Market Efficiency in Chinese and Indian Equity Markets,” Stat. Optim. Inf. Comput., 2019.
[5] A. R. Sadat and M. E. Hasan, “Testing Weak Form of Market Efficiency of DSE Based on Random Walk Hypothesis Model: A Parametric Test Approach,” Int. J. Account. Financ. Report., 2019.
[6] A. K. Tiwari and P. Kyophilavong, “New evidence from the random walk hypothesis for BRICS stock indices: A wavelet unit root test approach,” Econ. Model., vol. 43, pp. 38–41, 2014.
[7] K. Hamid, M. T. Suleman, S. Z. Ali Shah, and R. S. Imdad Akash, “Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Asia-Pacific Markets,” SSRN Electron. J., vol. 58, no. 58, 2017.
[8] D. S. K. Singh and L. Kumar, “Market Efficiency in Malaysia: An Empirical Study of Random Walk Hypothesis of Kuala Lumpur Stock Market (Composite Index) Bursa Malaysia,” SSRN Electron. J., 2018.
[9] S. Rehman, I. U. Chhapra, M. Kashif, and R. Rehan, “Are Stock Prices a Random Walk? An Empirical Evidence of Asian Stock Markets,” ETIKONOMI, 2018.
[10] D. Durusu-Ciftci, M. S. Ispir, and D. Kok, “Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question,” Int. Rev. Econ. Financ., 2019.
[11] T. A. Khan, “Cointegration of International Stock Markets: An Investigation of Diversification Opportunities,” Undergrad. Econ. Rev., vol. 8, no. 1, p. 52, 2011.
[12] R. Horvath and D. Petrovski, “International stock market integration: Central and south eastern europe compared,” Econ. Syst., 2013.
[13] T. Syriopoulos, B. Makram, and A. Boubaker, “Stock market volatility spillovers and portfolio hedging: BRICS and the financial crisis,” Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 39, pp. 7–18, 2015.
[14] A. BenSaïda, “The contagion effect in European sovereign debt markets: A regime-switching vine copula approach,” Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., 2017.
[15] S. J. H. Shahzad, R. Ferrer, L. Ballester, and Z. Umar, “Risk transmission between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A return and volatility spillover analysis,” Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 52, pp. 9–26, 2017.
[16] C. Eom and J. W. Park, “Effects of common factors on stock correlation networks and portfolio diversification,” Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 49, pp. 1–11, 2017.
[17] W. G. Choi, T. Kang, G. Y. Kim, and B. Lee, “Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses,” J. Int. Econ., vol. 109, pp. 153–166, 2017.
[18] J. O. Mensah and G. Premaratne, “Exploring Diversification Benefits in Asia-Pacific Equity Markets,” SSRN Electron. J., 2014.
[19] H. G. Grubel, “Internationally diversified portfolios: Welfare gains and capital flows,” Am. Econ. Rev., 1968.
[20] H. Levy and M. Sarnat, “International diversification of investment portfolios,” Am. Econ. Rev., vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 668–675, 1970.
[21] B. Solnik, C. Boucrelle, and Y. Le Fur, “International market correlation and volatility,” Financ. Anal. J., 1996.
[22] M. King, E. Sentana, and S. Wadhwani, “Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets,” Econometrica, 2006.
[23] J. Driessen and L. Laeven, “International portfolio diversification benefits: Cross-country evidence from a local perspective,” J. Bank. Financ., 2007.
[24] E. Chang, C. Chen, J. Chi, and M. Young, “IPO underpricing in China: New evidence from the primary and secondary markets,” Emerg. Mark. Rev., 2008.
[25] R. Gupta and G. D. Donleavy, “Benefits of diversifying investments into emerging markets with time-varying correlations: An Australian perspective,” J. Multinatl. Financ. Manag., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 160–177, 2009.
[26] D. Kenourgios and A. Samitas, “Equity market integration in emerging Balkan markets,” Res. Int. Bus. Financ., 2011.
[27] D. Gjika and R. Horváth, “Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model,” Econ. Model., vol. 33, pp. 55–64, 2013.
[28] A. Abu-Alkheil, W. A. Khan, B. Parikh, and S. K. Mohanty, Dynamic co-integration and portfolio diversification of Islamic and conventional indices: Global evidence. Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois, 2016.
[29] A. R. Alotaibi and A. V. Mishra, “Time Varying International Financial Integration for GCC Stock Markets,” Q. Rev. Econ. Financ., pp. 1–13, 2016.
[30] P. Ferreira, A. Dionísio, and S. M. S. Movahed, “Assessment of 48 Stock markets using adaptive multifractal approach,” Phys. A Stat. Mech. its Appl., vol. 486, pp. 730–750, 2017.
[31] J. J. Dsouza and T. Mallikarjunappa, “Does the Indian Stock Market Exhibit Random Walk?,” Paradigm, 2015.
[32] H. Shirvani and N. V. Delcoure, “The random walk in the stock prices of 18 OECD countries: Some robust panel-based integration and cointegration tests,” J. Econ. Stud., 2016.
[33] J. M. Poterba and L. H. Summers, “Mean reversion in stock prices. Evidence and Implications,” J. financ. econ., 1988.
[34] E. F. Fama and K. R. French, “Dividend yields and expected stock returns,” J. financ. econ., 1988.
[35] Lawrence H. Summers, “Does the stock market rationally reflect fundamental values,” J. Finance, 1986.
[36] J. L. Urrutia, “TESTS OF RANDOM WALK AND MARKET EFFICIENCY FOR LATIN AMERICAN EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS,” J. Financ. Res., 1995.
[37] T. Grieb and M. G. Reyes, “Random walk tests for latin american equity indexes and individual firms,” J. Financ. Res., 1999.
[38] A. Charles and O. Darné, “Variance-ratio tests of random walk: An overview,” Journal of Economic Surveys. 2009.
[39] M. A. Magnusson and B. Wydick, “How efficient are Africa’s emerging stock markets?,” J. Dev. Stud., 2002.
[40] G. Smith, K. Jefferis, and H. J. Ryoo, “African stock markets: Multiple variance ratio tests of random walks,” Appl. Financ. Econ., 2002.
[41] B.-N. Huang, “Do Asian stock market prices follow random walks? Evidence from the variance ratio test,” Appl. Financ. Econ., 1995.
[42] N. GROENEWOLD and M. ARIFF, “THE EFFECTS OF DE-REGULATION ON SHARE-MARKET EFFICIENCY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC,” Int. Econ. J., 2005.
[43] J. H. Kim and A. Shamsuddin, “Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests,” J. Empir. Financ., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 518–532, 2008.
[44] A. Abraham, F. J. Seyyed, and S. A. Alsakran, “Testing the random walk behavior and efficiency of the gulf stock markets,” Financ. Rev., 2002.
[45] O. M. Al-Khazali, D. K. Ding, and C. S. Pyun, “A new variance ratio test of random walk in emerging markets: A revisit,” Financ. Rev., 2007.
[46] G. Smith and H. J. Ryoo, “Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets,” Eur. J. Financ., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 290–300, 2003.
[47] A. Worthington and H. Higgs, “Weak-form market efficiency in European emerging and developed stock markets,” Sch. Econ. Financ. Discuss. Pap. Work. Pap. Ser. from Sch. Econ. Financ. Queensl. Univ. Technol., 2003.
[48] G. Smith, “Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality,” Eur. J. Financ., 2009.
[49] M. R. Borges, “Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets,” Eur. J. Financ., vol. 16, no. 7, pp. 711–726, 2010.
[50] K. Amira, A. Taamouti, and G. Tsafack, “What drives international equity correlations? volatility or market direction?,” J. Int. Money Financ., vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 1234–1263, 2011.
[51] S. Nisar and M. Hanif, “Testing weak form of efficient market hypothesis: Empirical evidence from South-Asia,” World Appl. Sci. J., 2012.
[52] S. Mehla and S. K. Goyal, “Empirical Evidence on Weak Form of Efficiency in Indian Stock Market,” Asia-Pacific J. Manag. Res. Innov., 2013.
[53] A. El Khamlichi, K. Sarkar, M. Arouri, and F. Teulon, “Are Islamic equity indices more efficient than their conventional counterparts? Evidence from major global index families,” J. Appl. Bus. Res., 2014.
[54] V. K. Gimba, “Testing the Weak-form Efficiency Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigerian Stock Market,” CBN J. Appl. Stat., 2012.
[55] R. McKerrow, “Random walks in frontier stock markets,” Ghanaian J. Econ., 2013.
[56] K. L. N’DRI, “Variance Ratio Tests of The Random Walk in The BRVM,” Appl. Econ. Financ., 2015.
[57] E. J. A. Abakah, P. Alagidede, Lord Mensah, and K. Ohene-Asare, “Non-linear approach to Random Walk Test in selected African countries,” Int. J. Manag. Financ., 2018.
[58] G. Ngene, K. A. Tah, and A. F. Darrat, “The random-walk hypothesis revisited: new evidence on multiple structural breaks in emerging markets,” Macroecon. Financ. Emerg. Mark. Econ., 2017.
[59] D. Aggarwal, “Random walk model and asymmetric effect in Korean composite stock price index,” Afro-Asian J. Financ. Account., 2018.
[60] A. W. Gregory and B. E. Hansen, “Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,” Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat., vol. 58, no. 3, pp. 555–560, 1996.
[61] J. Wright, “Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs,” J. Bus. Econ. Stat., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1–9, 2000.
[62] D. Dickey and W. Fuller, “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root,” Econometrica, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 1057–1072, 1981.
[63] D. Kwiatkowski, P. C. B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shinb, “Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root,” J. Econom., vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 159–178, 1992.
[64] G. S. Maddala and I.-M. Kim, Unit roots, cointegration, and structural change. Cambridge University Press, 1998.
[65] A. M. Noman and M. Z. Rahman, “Stationarity of South Asian Real Exchange Rates Under Exponential Star (ESTAR) Framework,” J. Dev. Areas, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 41–50, 2010.
[66] J. Clemente, A. Montañés, and M. Reyes, “Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean,” Econ. Lett., vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 175–182, 1998.
[67] P. Perron, “Dealing with structural breaks,” Palgrave Handb. Econom., vol. 1, pp. 278–352, 2006.
[68] E. Andreou and E. Ghysels, “Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series,” in Handbook of Financial Time Series, 2009, pp. 839–870.
[69] R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger, “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, vol. 55, no. 2, p. 251, 1987.
[70] S. Johansen, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors,” J. Econ. Dyn. Control, vol. 12, no. 2–3, pp. 231–254, 1988.
[71] B. Seo, “Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates,” J. Econom., vol. 85, pp. 339–385, 1998.
[72] A. Inoue, “Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break,” J. Econom., vol. 90, no. 2, pp. 215–237, 1999.
[73] H. Hansen and S. Johansen, “Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models,” Inst. Math. Stat. Univ. Copenhagen Prepr. 19931, 1992.
[74] H. M. Krolzig, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts,” Building, 1996.
[75] P. Hansen, “Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model,” J Econom., vol. 114, no. 2, pp. 261–295, 2003.
[76] A. W. Gregory and B. E. Hansen, “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts,” J. Econom., vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 99–126, 1996.
[77] E. Zivot and D. W. K. Andrews, “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,” J. Bus. Econ. Stat., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 251–270, 1992.
[78] A. W. Lo and C. M. A, “Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simole Specification Test,” Rev. Financ. Stud., 1988.
[79] M. Gallegati, “A wavelet-based approach to test for financial market contagion,” Comput. Stat. Data Anal., vol. 56, no. 11, pp. 3491–3497, 2012.
[80] P. Horta, C. Mendes, and I. Vieira, “Contagion effects of the subprime crisis in the European NYSE Euronext markets,” Port. Econ. J., 2010.
[81] P. C. B. Phillips and J. Yu, “Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis,” Quant. Econom., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 455–491, 2011.
[82] P. C. B. Phillips and P. Perron, “Testing for a unit root in time series regression,” Biometrika, vol. 75, no. 2, pp. 335–346, 1988.
[83] S. Claessens, G. D. Ariccia, D. Igan, and L. Laeven, “Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis,” IMF Work. Pap., pp. 1–40, 2010.
[84] G. Bekaert, M. Ehrmann, M. Fratzscher, and A. Mehl, “Global crises and equity market contagion,” Finance, no. May, pp. 1–23, 2011.
[85] V. Lin, J. Y., Treichel, “The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis Researching Its Root Cause,” Policy Res. Work. Pap., no. January, p. 80, 2012.
[86] J. C. A. Teixeira, F. J. F. Silva, M. B. S. Ferreira, and J. A. C. Vieira, “Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises,” Glob. Financ. J., vol. 36, no. June 2017, pp. 1–13, 2018.
[87] A. J. Richards, “Winner-loser reversals in national stock market indices: Can they be explained?,” J. Finance, vol. 52, no. 5, pp. 2129–2144, 1997.
[88] A. C. Worthington and H. Higgs, “Tests of random walks and market efficiency in Latin American stock markets: An empirical note,” Pathog. Glob. Health, vol. 107, no. 8, p. 493, 2013.
[89] K. Chaudhuri and Y. Wu, “Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets,” J. Bank. Financ., vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 575–592, 2003.
[90] W. F. M. De BONDT and R. THALER, “Does the Stock Market Overreact?,” J. Finance, vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 793–805, 1985.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Rui Dias, Paula Heliodoro, Nuno Teixeira, Teresa Godinho. (2020). Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management, 5(1), 40-51. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Rui Dias; Paula Heliodoro; Nuno Teixeira; Teresa Godinho. Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets. Int. J. Account. Finance Risk Manag. 2020, 5(1), 40-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Rui Dias, Paula Heliodoro, Nuno Teixeira, Teresa Godinho. Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets. Int J Account Finance Risk Manag. 2020;5(1):40-51. doi: 10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14,
      author = {Rui Dias and Paula Heliodoro and Nuno Teixeira and Teresa Godinho},
      title = {Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets},
      journal = {International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management},
      volume = {5},
      number = {1},
      pages = {40-51},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijafrm.20200501.14},
      abstract = {The aim of this paper is to analyse integration and test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in sixteen international financial markets. The sample covers the period from January 2002 to July 2019 and is divided into three sub-periods. In order to achieve such an analysis, the aim is to provide answers to two questions. Has the global financial crisis intensified the financial integration of international markets? If there is a process of mean-reversion in the international stock markets, with arbitrage, the hypothesis of portfolio diversification will be feasible? The results suggest that the global financial crisis has intensified the integration level of international financial markets. Regarding random walk and market efficiency hypotheses, in its weak form, the results suggest the existence of a mean-reversion and the rejection of the hypothesis of information efficiency, in its weak form, in developed and emerging markets, European and non-European. In terms of portfolio diversification analysis, we see that levels of financial integration decreased significantly in the sub-period following the global financial crisis, namely with its respective benchmarks, such as the US market, Japan and Hong Kong. We can assess the existence of feasible diversification opportunities in the long term.},
     year = {2020}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Equity Markets
    AU  - Rui Dias
    AU  - Paula Heliodoro
    AU  - Nuno Teixeira
    AU  - Teresa Godinho
    Y1  - 2020/03/10
    PY  - 2020
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14
    T2  - International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management
    JF  - International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management
    JO  - International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management
    SP  - 40
    EP  - 51
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-9376
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200501.14
    AB  - The aim of this paper is to analyse integration and test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in sixteen international financial markets. The sample covers the period from January 2002 to July 2019 and is divided into three sub-periods. In order to achieve such an analysis, the aim is to provide answers to two questions. Has the global financial crisis intensified the financial integration of international markets? If there is a process of mean-reversion in the international stock markets, with arbitrage, the hypothesis of portfolio diversification will be feasible? The results suggest that the global financial crisis has intensified the integration level of international financial markets. Regarding random walk and market efficiency hypotheses, in its weak form, the results suggest the existence of a mean-reversion and the rejection of the hypothesis of information efficiency, in its weak form, in developed and emerging markets, European and non-European. In terms of portfolio diversification analysis, we see that levels of financial integration decreased significantly in the sub-period following the global financial crisis, namely with its respective benchmarks, such as the US market, Japan and Hong Kong. We can assess the existence of feasible diversification opportunities in the long term.
    VL  - 5
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Accounting and Finance, Business School of Setúbal, Setúbal, Portugal

  • Department of Accounting and Finance, Business School of Setúbal, Setúbal, Portugal

  • Department of Accounting and Finance, Business School of Setúbal, Setúbal, Portugal

  • Department of Accounting and Finance, Business School of Setúbal, Setúbal, Portugal

  • Sections