U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification

Jaya Jha; Terry Roe

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification

Jaya Jha, Terry Roe

Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 6, Issue 3)

Received: 3 June 2021 Accepted: 11 June 2021 Published: 21 June 2021

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Abstract

This paper examines the structural relationship of foreign GDP growth, real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on U.S. agricultural export growth. The intertemporal dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vector autoregressive framework. We find that: (1) An increase (decrease) in importing countries’ trade-adjusted GDP leads to an increase (decrease) in U.S. agricultural exports; (2) A real appreciation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar results in a decline (increase) in U.S. agricultural exports; (3) Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities; (4) In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports adjust at a much faster rate for exports of grains and other bulk commodities than high-value products; and (5) The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. The paper not only highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling short-run dynamics in agricultural trade models, but is also the first to use this method to comprehensively estimate macroeconomic linkages of U.S agricultural exports, simultaneously across a number of agricultural products, importing countries, over a period of five decades.

Published in	International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 6, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
Page(s)	122-138
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Export Demand, Foreign Income, Exchange Rates, Cointegrating VAR, Bounds Test, Income and Price Elasticities

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Jaya Jha, Terry Roe. (2021). U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(3), 122-138. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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Jaya Jha; Terry Roe. U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2021, 6(3), 122-138. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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Jaya Jha, Terry Roe. U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. Int J Agric Econ. 2021;6(3):122-138. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15,
  author = {Jaya Jha and Terry Roe},
  title = {U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {122-138},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20210603.15},
  abstract = {This paper examines the structural relationship of foreign GDP growth, real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on U.S. agricultural export growth. The intertemporal dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vector autoregressive framework. We find that: (1) An increase (decrease) in importing countries’ trade-adjusted GDP leads to an increase (decrease) in U.S. agricultural exports; (2) A real appreciation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar results in a decline (increase) in U.S. agricultural exports; (3) Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities; (4) In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports adjust at a much faster rate for exports of grains and other bulk commodities than high-value products; and (5) The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. The paper not only highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling short-run dynamics in agricultural trade models, but is also the first to use this method to comprehensively estimate macroeconomic linkages of U.S agricultural exports, simultaneously across a number of agricultural products, importing countries, over a period of five decades.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification
AU  - Jaya Jha
AU  - Terry Roe
Y1  - 2021/06/21
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 122
EP  - 138
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
AB  - This paper examines the structural relationship of foreign GDP growth, real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on U.S. agricultural export growth. The intertemporal dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vector autoregressive framework. We find that: (1) An increase (decrease) in importing countries’ trade-adjusted GDP leads to an increase (decrease) in U.S. agricultural exports; (2) A real appreciation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar results in a decline (increase) in U.S. agricultural exports; (3) Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities; (4) In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports adjust at a much faster rate for exports of grains and other bulk commodities than high-value products; and (5) The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. The paper not only highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling short-run dynamics in agricultural trade models, but is also the first to use this method to comprehensively estimate macroeconomic linkages of U.S agricultural exports, simultaneously across a number of agricultural products, importing countries, over a period of five decades.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Jaya Jha

Economics Department, Davidson College, North Carolina, USA
Terry Roe

Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, USA

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APA Style

Jaya Jha, Terry Roe. (2021). U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(3), 122-138. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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ACS Style

Jaya Jha; Terry Roe. U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2021, 6(3), 122-138. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

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AMA Style

Jaya Jha, Terry Roe. U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification. Int J Agric Econ. 2021;6(3):122-138. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15,
  author = {Jaya Jha and Terry Roe},
  title = {U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {122-138},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20210603.15},
  abstract = {This paper examines the structural relationship of foreign GDP growth, real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on U.S. agricultural export growth. The intertemporal dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vector autoregressive framework. We find that: (1) An increase (decrease) in importing countries’ trade-adjusted GDP leads to an increase (decrease) in U.S. agricultural exports; (2) A real appreciation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar results in a decline (increase) in U.S. agricultural exports; (3) Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities; (4) In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports adjust at a much faster rate for exports of grains and other bulk commodities than high-value products; and (5) The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. The paper not only highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling short-run dynamics in agricultural trade models, but is also the first to use this method to comprehensively estimate macroeconomic linkages of U.S agricultural exports, simultaneously across a number of agricultural products, importing countries, over a period of five decades.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - U.S Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification
AU  - Jaya Jha
AU  - Terry Roe
Y1  - 2021/06/21
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 122
EP  - 138
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20210603.15
AB  - This paper examines the structural relationship of foreign GDP growth, real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on U.S. agricultural export growth. The intertemporal dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vector autoregressive framework. We find that: (1) An increase (decrease) in importing countries’ trade-adjusted GDP leads to an increase (decrease) in U.S. agricultural exports; (2) A real appreciation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar results in a decline (increase) in U.S. agricultural exports; (3) Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities; (4) In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports adjust at a much faster rate for exports of grains and other bulk commodities than high-value products; and (5) The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. The paper not only highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling short-run dynamics in agricultural trade models, but is also the first to use this method to comprehensively estimate macroeconomic linkages of U.S agricultural exports, simultaneously across a number of agricultural products, importing countries, over a period of five decades.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download