Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke; Akarue Blessing Okiemute

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke, Akarue Blessing Okiemute

Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 3, Issue 4)

Received: 18 April 2018 Accepted: 20 June 2018 Published: 7 July 2018

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Abstract

The study was conducted to examine the trend analysis of area, yield and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2016) and was taken from the database of FAO (2018). Three Models of trend analysis were applied. The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, and cubic trend Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Cubic Trend Model based on the highest R2 of (95.76 %), (95.76%) and (88.12%) for cashew area harvested, production and yield respectively, coupled with the lowest residual sum square and mean square error. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2026. The forecasted values were area harvested (409459.07ha -486296.12), yield (24272.09hg/ha – 27422.91hg/ha) and production (990382.68tons-1.127E+06). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested, yield and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.

Published in	International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 3, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
Page(s)	65-71
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Cashew, Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Cubic Trend Model, RSS, MSE, Nigeria

References

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APA Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke, Akarue Blessing Okiemute. (2018). Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 3(4), 65-71. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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ACS Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke; Akarue Blessing Okiemute. Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2018, 3(4), 65-71. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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AMA Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke, Akarue Blessing Okiemute. Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. Int J Agric Econ. 2018;3(4):65-71. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11,
  author = {Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke and Akarue Blessing Okiemute},
  title = {Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {65-71},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20180304.11},
  abstract = {The study was conducted to examine the trend analysis of area, yield and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2016) and was taken from the database of FAO (2018). Three Models of trend analysis were applied. The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, and cubic trend Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Cubic Trend Model based on the highest R2 of (95.76 %), (95.76%) and (88.12%) for cashew area harvested, production and yield respectively, coupled with the lowest residual sum square and mean square error. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2026. The forecasted values were area harvested (409459.07ha -486296.12), yield (24272.09hg/ha – 27422.91hg/ha) and production (990382.68tons-1.127E+06). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested, yield and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis
AU  - Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke
AU  - Akarue Blessing Okiemute
Y1  - 2018/07/07
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 65
EP  - 71
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
AB  - The study was conducted to examine the trend analysis of area, yield and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2016) and was taken from the database of FAO (2018). Three Models of trend analysis were applied. The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, and cubic trend Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Cubic Trend Model based on the highest R2 of (95.76 %), (95.76%) and (88.12%) for cashew area harvested, production and yield respectively, coupled with the lowest residual sum square and mean square error. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2026. The forecasted values were area harvested (409459.07ha -486296.12), yield (24272.09hg/ha – 27422.91hg/ha) and production (990382.68tons-1.127E+06). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested, yield and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke

Department of Agricultural Science Education, Nwafor Orizu College of Education, Nsugbe, Nigeria
Akarue Blessing Okiemute

Department of Agricultural Science Education, College of Education, Warri, Nigeria

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke, Akarue Blessing Okiemute. (2018). Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 3(4), 65-71. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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ACS Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke; Akarue Blessing Okiemute. Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2018, 3(4), 65-71. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

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AMA Style

Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke, Akarue Blessing Okiemute. Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis. Int J Agric Econ. 2018;3(4):65-71. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11,
  author = {Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke and Akarue Blessing Okiemute},
  title = {Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {65-71},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20180304.11},
  abstract = {The study was conducted to examine the trend analysis of area, yield and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2016) and was taken from the database of FAO (2018). Three Models of trend analysis were applied. The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, and cubic trend Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Cubic Trend Model based on the highest R2 of (95.76 %), (95.76%) and (88.12%) for cashew area harvested, production and yield respectively, coupled with the lowest residual sum square and mean square error. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2026. The forecasted values were area harvested (409459.07ha -486296.12), yield (24272.09hg/ha – 27422.91hg/ha) and production (990382.68tons-1.127E+06). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested, yield and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting of Cashew Area Harvested, Yield and Production Using Trend Analysis
AU  - Okeke Daniel Chukwujioke
AU  - Akarue Blessing Okiemute
Y1  - 2018/07/07
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 65
EP  - 71
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20180304.11
AB  - The study was conducted to examine the trend analysis of area, yield and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2016) and was taken from the database of FAO (2018). Three Models of trend analysis were applied. The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, and cubic trend Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Cubic Trend Model based on the highest R2 of (95.76 %), (95.76%) and (88.12%) for cashew area harvested, production and yield respectively, coupled with the lowest residual sum square and mean square error. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2026. The forecasted values were area harvested (409459.07ha -486296.12), yield (24272.09hg/ha – 27422.91hg/ha) and production (990382.68tons-1.127E+06). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested, yield and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
ER  -

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