COVID-19 is currently a perilous disease that has an incubation period of between 4 and 6 days. The United States Disease Control and Prevention Centers posited that in certain cases, coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means that they have been responsible for moving from animals to humans. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) disease has had an enormous impact globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has put in place various safety measures that will help alleviate the spread of the epidemic. This paper presents an SEIRD epidemic model with government policy to predict the spread of COVID-19. Through mathematical analysis, the essence of the model is investigated. The basic reproductive number of the envisaged model is computed and decides whether or not the disease is present in the population. Disease-free and symptomatic equilibria are studied for their existence and stability via the Lyapunov function. It is established from our numerical simulations that the introduction of government policy helps to alleviate the spread of the disease, where the basic reproductive number takes part in sustaining their stability. In the prediction of infected and death cases that were very similar to real-life data, it was established that the model was effective.
| Published in | American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling (Volume 5, Issue 3) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12 |
| Page(s) | 70-76 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group |
COVID-19, SEIRD, Basic Reproduction Number, Disease-free Equilibrium, Routh-Herwitz Criterion, Global Stability, Lyapunov Function, LaSalle’s Invariance Principle
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APA Style
Joseph Roger Arhin, Francis Sam, Kenneth Coker, Ernest Owusu Ansah. (2020). An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States. American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 5(3), 70-76. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12
ACS Style
Joseph Roger Arhin; Francis Sam; Kenneth Coker; Ernest Owusu Ansah. An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States. Am. J. Math. Comput. Model. 2020, 5(3), 70-76. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12
AMA Style
Joseph Roger Arhin, Francis Sam, Kenneth Coker, Ernest Owusu Ansah. An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States. Am J Math Comput Model. 2020;5(3):70-76. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12,
author = {Joseph Roger Arhin and Francis Sam and Kenneth Coker and Ernest Owusu Ansah},
title = {An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States},
journal = {American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling},
volume = {5},
number = {3},
pages = {70-76},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajmcm.20200503.12},
abstract = {COVID-19 is currently a perilous disease that has an incubation period of between 4 and 6 days. The United States Disease Control and Prevention Centers posited that in certain cases, coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means that they have been responsible for moving from animals to humans. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) disease has had an enormous impact globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has put in place various safety measures that will help alleviate the spread of the epidemic. This paper presents an SEIRD epidemic model with government policy to predict the spread of COVID-19. Through mathematical analysis, the essence of the model is investigated. The basic reproductive number of the envisaged model is computed and decides whether or not the disease is present in the population. Disease-free and symptomatic equilibria are studied for their existence and stability via the Lyapunov function. It is established from our numerical simulations that the introduction of government policy helps to alleviate the spread of the disease, where the basic reproductive number takes part in sustaining their stability. In the prediction of infected and death cases that were very similar to real-life data, it was established that the model was effective.},
year = {2020}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - An SEIRD Epidemic Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 over a Period of One Year: A Case of the United States AU - Joseph Roger Arhin AU - Francis Sam AU - Kenneth Coker AU - Ernest Owusu Ansah Y1 - 2020/07/28 PY - 2020 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12 DO - 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12 T2 - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling JF - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling JO - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling SP - 70 EP - 76 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2578-8280 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20200503.12 AB - COVID-19 is currently a perilous disease that has an incubation period of between 4 and 6 days. The United States Disease Control and Prevention Centers posited that in certain cases, coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means that they have been responsible for moving from animals to humans. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) disease has had an enormous impact globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has put in place various safety measures that will help alleviate the spread of the epidemic. This paper presents an SEIRD epidemic model with government policy to predict the spread of COVID-19. Through mathematical analysis, the essence of the model is investigated. The basic reproductive number of the envisaged model is computed and decides whether or not the disease is present in the population. Disease-free and symptomatic equilibria are studied for their existence and stability via the Lyapunov function. It is established from our numerical simulations that the introduction of government policy helps to alleviate the spread of the disease, where the basic reproductive number takes part in sustaining their stability. In the prediction of infected and death cases that were very similar to real-life data, it was established that the model was effective. VL - 5 IS - 3 ER -
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